Syrian Rebellion Obs

NOTE : #France played the role of #Turkey : despite being of the same, for a time, ideology of some of the rebels, it just manipulated the situation (selling few weapons...), used refugees in very bad conditions and never tried, really, to support opposition...

#SRO | And parallel some did with #Spain insurgency against military power, where radicals played a role, with international fighters, foreign powers manipulating local rebels, regime erasing towns with foreign airforce, the battle of the minorities, is completely true (END).

#SRO | At the end, another time, regime argument "revolt created, used and protected" by foreign powers "to destroy regime" falling completely : they just tried to play their cards and manipulate rebels to NOT lead to the #Assad fall, just to weaken it (highly different !) (9).

#SRO | First step in the pro-#Assad strategy by #Turkey was to aspire many #FSA and islamic groups in a so-called offensive to push #IS out of N-#Aleppo : in fact, just creating a future N-#Cyprus there to concentrate refugees, and, same time, offering E-#Aleppo to #Assad (8).

#SRO | #Turkey and #Assad are coming, at the end of the war, to a double-victory : #Turkey helped #Assad to weaken opposition since 2016, considering kurdish issue as more important, and #Assad can erase mainly sunni opposition, islamic or not, strongholds in the north-west (7).

#SRO | Another time, #SRO was in the true way of actions by #Turkey. The regime is also really open to see the #US-tolerated #Turkey demand for a no-#YPG band at the border : without its strongholds (Serekanye, #Qamishlo, Amude...) there, #PYD project and forces to be weaken (6).

#SRO | #SRO, years ago, was first to call #Idlib "giant prison" (search in previous tweets) : a prison for civilians, for opposition, kept by #Assad, #Russia, #Iran and #Turkey soldiers in a small corridor. It was never a #Turkey objective to create an opposition stroinghold (5).

#SRO | #Turkey objective was, is and will always be #kurdishquestion. #Erdogan just used rebels to weaken #Assad for a time but never acted for an end of regime (May 2011 #Erdogan treason was the clear message : #Assad will stay). #Turkey is only motivated by kurdish issue (4).

#SRO | The fall of N-#Hama is an urgent goal for the #Russia'n led offensive : it will erase the towns there, destroying the biggest #FSA strongholds in N-W #Syria and, for the regime : pushing sunni pop' far from #Hama alawites villages ring in the northern and eastern rif (3).

#SRO | #Turkey now open to leave N-#Hama to fall to #Assad, its de facto ally against rebellion. #Turkey treason isn't new : #SRO is denouncing (one of the few, that's true) to denounce #Erdogan treason since May 2011 when he assured he will go for #Hama if tanks entered it (2).

#SRO | As expected, assault by regime forces targeting al-Tamanah, converging toward Khan Sheikhun periphery and about to close the northern-#Hama future pocket, taken by local fighters (including the local famous Tajamuu Kataeb al-Haq at that time) in December 2012 (1).

#SRO | The only opportunity for the regime to advance will be at eastern frontline, from Morek to al-Eis. It is the weak point of the rebellion defense in Greater #Idlib. We can expect attacks and offensives there and some military advances for the regime and #Russia (END).

#SRO | These past weeks knew the biggest army defections in years. Many young, but also former military campaigns survivors, refused to join the ranks and left weapons, threatened of military justice. More important, always same areas giving soldiers to the regime... (6).

#SRO | Now, expect another "blitz" against the civilians. #Russia will never accept the defeat of its plans but won't do it publicly so it will turn the area into a hell on earth to cover this fact. In same time, regime will have more problems to recruit new soldiers... (5).

#SRO | The #Idlib and N-#Hama battles just confirmed that now encircled and threatened to death, rebels there, from #FSA to hard-line jihadis, will fight for any meter of field, street or road. The amount of killed for the pro-regime to be completely out of imagination (4).

#SRO | Claiming victory by some, in this context, will just insult the hundreds loyalists killed there by the crazy "strategists" from #Russia and #Damascus who pushed them to death... Imagine now a battle for a big city... Or Jabal Zawiya mountains... (3).

#SRO | Since start of the offensive in April 2019, regime losses (men killed) are now crossing the number of 1200. For a result ? One town taken, a dozen small villages of few houses, a city that opened its gates as negociated years before. #Russia is for sure reconsidering (2).

#SRO | ANALYSIS | The fall of Tal Malah and Jubayn, turned into amounts of ruins by hundreds of strikes, isn't a victory for the regime. #Russia knows, for now, that taking back greater #Idlib could cost tens if thousands loyalists killed (1).

#SRO | ANALYSIS - Effect was complete contrary ! Offensive has just put light on one of last non-jihadi groups in #Hama / #Idlib. So, #HTS losing, despite fighting now on the frontlines, on the popularity ground, and #Assad regime / #Russia also losing about their rhetoric (4).

#SRO | ANALYSIS - In few months, the #Idlib offensive has put a light on Jaysh al-Izza and its capacity to resist in frontline despite a very low tanks, heavy weapons and ammo' level of deployment. For the regime, it is a very bad consequence as it wanted a clash with #HTS. (3).