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In the past few days, several contacts from areas controlled by the SDF in Deir Ezzor asked me, with great concern, whether Turkey is going to invade NE Syria. Their concern stemmed from several reasons:
1) Fear that the SDF will pull troops from DeZ to fend off the Turkish invasion. The security vacuum could be exploited by the regime & ISIS to attack the area. Members of the Sheitat tribe were particularly nervous - they are certain ISIS will target them.
2) Fear that SDF recruits from DeZ will be sent to fight against Turkey & be killed there and forced to fight against fellow Syrians & former neighbors & relatives, now fighting in the ranks of Turkish-backed factions (Ahrar al-Sharqiya, etc).
3) Even if some in DeZ would prefer to be ruled by Turkish-backed factions (& many don't, due to their poor reputation & criminality), they know that the Turkish-backed forces won't reach their areas. So DeZ will only experience the downsides of such an invasion & no benefits.
I've conducted dozens of interviews with Deiris in recent weeks. It appears that most DeZ residents living under SDF don't think a better alternative to the SDF exists currently, but want real (not symbolic) participation in governance. More:https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/79542
Deiris fear the return of the regime. Even people who do not follow politics know the crimes of the regime & have relatives killed & detained by it. DeZ, unlike Raqqa, witnessed huge anti-regime protestshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjTAMEf8Jzg …
Deiris also largely reject ISIS - it ruled Deiris by fear. Some support does exist for ISIS, but it appears that most non-cooperation with the SDF in arresting ISIS cells stems from factors other than ideological commitment (ISIS intimidation, familial bonds, dislike of the SDF)
More on ISIS resurgence in Deir Ezzor in a recent great report by @dkhalifa for @CrisisGrouphttps://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/eastern-mediterranean/syria/204-squaring-circles-syrias-north-east …
Would a US-Turkey agreement causing the SDF to withdraw from DeZ and iincreasing the risk of ISIS revival give Iranian backed militias a justification for taking over the SDF role in DeZ?
The opposite more sdf’s HQ ll move to Der al zour which ll creat new dynamics
The US - TR talks are about Rojava proper not Arab areas further south
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