Charles ListerVerified account

@Charles_Lister

Senior Fellow & Director of at . Author of . Following , armed groups, , & T/RT≠ endorsement.

Washington, DC
mei.edu/profile/charle…
Joined January 2012
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Jul 12

    " Hasn't Won Anything" - My latest in underlines that 8yrs of brutal war has left with nothing but a chronically violent and chaotic failed state. Read here:

    44 replies 124 retweets 212 likes
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  2. Retweeted
    16 minutes ago

    Insightful thread from on the evolution of nationalist jihadism in Syria. is a fascinating case study of ideological/behavioral transformation among jihadists. To what extent is HTS emulating ’s - the most advanced case in this trend.

    Amid the ongoing conflict in NW , Hayat Tahrir al-Sham () continues to evolve in intriguing ways - into a more politically mature & intelligent jihadist moveme…
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  3. 10 minutes ago

    Some context to bear in mind: This thread above is purely analytical, based on my intensive research focus on // since '11-12. I've been told I'm on their hit-list. I've had multiple, serious threats from them, because of my work & contacts within their ranks.

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  4. 13 minutes ago

    This localism appears to be the future of an movement increasingly disconnected strategically & tactically from its aging, besieged & disconnected leadership. This isn't necessarily a good thing -- more nimble, embedded & intelligent jihadists pose worrying challenges.

    1 reply 3 retweets 2 likes
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  5. 14 minutes ago

    In , is encouraging its members & supporters to pursue *only* peaceful political protest, while fighting jihad elsewhere. In , & elsewhere, affiliates have doubled-down on localism, embedding deeply in local dynamics to broaden their appeal.

    1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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  6. 16 minutes ago

    is in bad health & is dead. Despite ordering his affiliates to re-pivot back to 's "elite vanguard" model, most continue to pursue some variation of 's localized strategy, which furthers their respective autonomy from AQC.

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  7. 17 minutes ago

    : Whatever does/doesn't come from this in the NW context, jihadists worldwide are watching closely. Some are viscerally critical & others are intrigued by 's so-called "popular" model. Amid 's continued decentralization, lessons are crucial.

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  8. 18 minutes ago

    For now, I'm not sure (a) we or (b) () is necessarily ready for any such initiative. But 's stands as a precedent, particularly if remains unresolved/irreconcilable or "Gazified." However, 's designated status presents a significant obstacle.

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  9. 18 minutes ago

    This interest in the West, centered in , isn't coming from nowhere. CT & analysts in government have been watching 's evolution closely. So has the . And has repeatedly sent messages through intermediaries indicating their interest in dialogues.

    1 reply 2 retweets 2 likes
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  10. 19 minutes ago

    What's equally interesting is developments behind the scenes. - Several -an governments are debating whether to engage in exploratory dialogue with 's political office. - Several independent Western initiatives are already talking with , deciphering its vision.

    2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
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  11. 22 minutes ago

    's rhetorical shifts are also not limited to the public. In closed meetings, he continues to push the concept of an entity called "The Liberated Territories of Northern Syria." He frequently cites lessons from & goes deep on modern Arab political history.

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  12. 23 minutes ago

    Some of 's rhetorical change is almost certainly "controlled pragmatism" employed for strategic reasons, but these public changes are beginning to have an effect. I'm told: - recruitment is up. - Local donations are up. - Popular credibility is starting to recover.

    3 replies 3 retweets 6 likes
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  13. 24 minutes ago

    : In a 22-min dialogue, combined military, political, societal & economic analysis into his comments on . He talked about "Alawites," not "Nusayris." He talked about "revolution," not "jihad." He described sacrifice as a loss, not a religious duty to glorify.

    2 replies 4 retweets 6 likes
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  14. 26 minutes ago

    On Aug 3, leader held a "press conference" addressing the situation in & nationwide. His language was a stark departure from a jihad-heavy, theologically-dominated lecture. Close your eyes & he sounded like an leader, albeit far more intelligent.

    3 replies 3 retweets 9 likes
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  15. 27 minutes ago

    Most recently in the public space, issued a statement acknowledging its willingness to abide by an externally-negotiated (by , & ) ceasefire. That was a first. Its never happened before in & it's not a move any affiliate would ever take.

    2 replies 6 retweets 8 likes
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  16. 28 minutes ago

    There's now little question that no longer represents . It's clearly still an extremist movement, but signs continue to add up indicating that it's developing into something qualitatively different than the Jabhat al-Nusra of 2014-15 - a "Shami ," perhaps.

    2 replies 4 retweets 10 likes
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  17. 28 minutes ago

    Amid the ongoing conflict in NW , Hayat Tahrir al-Sham () continues to evolve in intriguing ways - into a more politically mature & intelligent jihadist movement. It's current leadership clearly seeks to position itself somewhere between & .

    3 replies 18 retweets 20 likes
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  18. 2 hours ago

    Given the lack of details here, it sounds like little else was agreed except that (1) a safe zone will [hopefully] be created & (2) US- talks will continue to hammer out how. Sounds eerily like the long-drawn-out negotiations.

    NEW - 's MOD, post-US talks: 1. Measures to be taken to address 's security concerns.…
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  19. 2 hours ago

    NEW - 's MOD, post-US talks: 1. Measures to be taken to address 's security concerns. 2. A "Joint US- Ops Center" is being established to begin moving towards an [undefined] safe zone in NE 3. The safe zone will be a "peace corridor" for refugees.

    1 reply 9 retweets 10 likes
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  20. 2 hours ago

    Gen. John Allen & : - "White Nationalist terrorism" is an "equal threat" to or & must be confronted. - 's rhetoric "provides a cover for extremists who excuse their actions in the language of political grievance"

    2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
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  21. 19 hours ago

    This report is VERY significant. It's an extraordinarily negative assessment of the counter- campaign from the . The unsaid message is similarly important: - The admin's decisions (re. ) & posture (re. ) have made things immeasurably worse.

    .'s quarterly report is depressing reading. Top line conclusions:…
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    4 replies 26 retweets 41 likes
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