Alexander McKeever

“Ankara has...consolidated an atmosphere of ‘managed chaos.’ It has established a delicate balance in the security situation that provides it all the necessary means of control and intervention in the area. This has reinforced persistent fear among the local population in Afrin.”

“Ankara has not created a clear model of self-administration in Afrin. As part of the Astana process, [an] understanding with Russia led to an agreement not to establish structures that could serve as alternatives or rivals to the Syrian state in the areas under Turkish control.”

“It is worth noting that the armed factions most closely aligned with Turkey are the same ones that have continued to commit violations against civilians...These armed factions are responsible for the protection of the portions of Afrin that border Turkey...[it’s] main priority.

“TR has decreased its support for other armed factions in order to weaken and subdue them. These include the Levant Front, the most powerful armed faction in the ES area, [constituting] an obstacle that has prevented [TR] from achieving hegemony there and especially in...Azaz.”

“The lists of applicants accepted into the police force issued in February 2019 indicate that the policemen come primarily from Eastern Ghouta and Homs...The lists include only three local Arab inhabitants of Afrin, and no Kurds, among the 301 accepted.”

“Within a year, TR forces and TFSA forces have arrested more than 2,500 civilians, around 1,000 of whom were still imprisoned by March 2019...The kidnappings have specifically targeted Kurdish civilians...motivated by their wealth rather than any supposed connection to the YPG

“Unlike in the ‘Euphrates Shield’ zone, where members of the armed factions and military and civilian police forces were mostly native to the region, the National Army in Afrin is made up of non-local fighters acting without local accountability or oversight.” (1)

”Turkey has faced difficulties in imposing a military and security end state in the ‘Euphrates Shield’ zone over the last three years because the fighters under its command are locals and therefore linked with the local population through kinship and clan ties...” (2)

“...which impedes implementation of the Turkish agenda. In contrast, members of the armed factions and police forces in Afrin follow Turkish orders more strictly because they lack kinship or regional ties with the local population.” (3) ok stopping before I quote the whole report