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Not sure I can fully agree with this thread. IMO there are too many unknown factors to make an accurate assessment of whether or not Assad can take all of Idlib. Even in the most technical of hypotheticals, I don't think Damascus has the ability to (Short thread)...https://twitter.com/MENA_Conflict/status/1156003930171564034 …
Jabeen, Tal Maleh & Kafr Naboudeh are important case studies. The pics circling of Jabeen & Tel Maleh don't tell the full story: the towns were actually leveled w/in the first weeks of fighting (see pic). Despite this, it still took nearly 2 months for the regime to recapturepic.twitter.com/sS8qdh71Ko
Now ignore anyone who claims there were no serious attempts to take the towns. Rebels somehow held these towns despite massive bombardments. Kafr Naboudeh is the best example though. A large, strategic town no one expected the rebels to recapture, but they did, & they weren't
fighting second-rate SAA. The Kafr Naboudeh fighting was devastating for Tiger Forces (this comes from observable martyr reports AND sources on the ground). Qamhana NDF needed to replenish TF offensive manpower after rebels recaptured it & many Tiger units dropped out of rotation
But it's not just the Tigers fighting in Hama, nearly every Russian-trained SAA brigade has been deployed here as well. These aren't disposable conscripts. As one loyalist said "I'd rather have the 9th Div than the 4th Div" Here you can see the original SAA units deployed (green)pic.twitter.com/ZjFXrFR8wb
Additionally the entire 4th Corps & the 5th Corps' 1st/2nd/3rd/5th/6th Brigades are deployed here (the other 2 brigades are deployed in DeZ). Along w/ Russian-trained Liwa al-Quds, experienced anti-ATGM teams from Qalamoun Shield Forces, Mil Security & many Rep Guard units
Speaking of the SRG, as many know they were the backbone of most key urban offensives (Aleppo, Damascus, DeZ) & they've been decimated. I've been told most units are taking this time to rebuild as its the first period all war where they can rest - so now Assad has lost that tool
My last note: When was the last time Damascus won an outright victory? Everything from Aleppo to DeZ to East Ghouta relied on forced reconciliations & shipping out the last hardened defenders. Can he do that in Hama/Idlib? Unlikely. So now units that have lost their most
experienced officers & are largely staffed w/ green troops have to win total victory. If all you can rely on to do so is mass bombardment & 2 brigades-worth of Tigers, you won't win. This new push has a bunch of fresh 5th Div armor & newly rotated 5th Corps & SRG men. Many have
said Assad has no manpower shortage but manpower is drained by necessary checkpoints. I was told "They can bring in way more 9th Div men, but depends if they can get other men to man their checkpoints etc, pretty difficult to do right now"
I think it comes down to whether the rebels have the human depth to continue fighting as they have been & if there is a breaking point to their defensive line. Assad IS limited, his most elite units have been committed from the start & he has much further to go. (END)
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