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2- What follows will in no way try to explain the uprising. Arguably, long list of ingredients were thrown into a toxic cocktail mix that produced what we have come to know as #Syria ‘s uprising This, however, must not distract us from studying the Eco backdrop leading into 2011

3-Official comprehensive and up-to-date statistics was always hard to come by in places like #Syria . Those who wanted and tried to study the Eco backdrop had to rely on less than ideal sets of data on demographics, GDP, unemployment or inflation. Important to keep this in mind

4-One thing that there is little disagreement on is that #Syria experienced Sub-Saharan standards in population growth rates between early 1950’s & mid 1990’s. Why is this important? Fast forward & Think Job generation needs as those age cohorts are now in their mid 20’s

5-Putting those numbers in perspectives, #Syria ‘s fertility rate (number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to end of her childbearing years) was nearly 7.5 from the late 50’s till early 1980’s. This is stunningly large number w profound implications

6-If Avg Syrian woman had fertility rate still near 7 by 1982, this age cohort grew to be 25 years old as 2007 drew close. By this time, country was in need of creating nearly 275,000 new jobs year in and year out for this age cohort

7-Also by 2007, nearly half of #Syria ‘s population was classified as rural. Since the above fertility rates are average, it meant that for nearly half the population those fertility rates were even higher than average. Think so where around 8-9 children per rural family

8- Rural #Syria ‘s tsunami was the drought that started around 2007. This was the final blow that destroyed any chance for nearly 10 million people counted in the rural bracket by then. Migration to urban centers picked speed & new challenges were now brewing

9-With this background, what was #Syria ‘s Govt up to? What was Eco policy? The fall of the Soviet Union in early 1990’s dealt a blow to most socialist Eco systems. Consensus opinion then was that such systems have failed and they need to be “reformed” to survive

10-#Syria was no exception to the trend of eco reforms that was sweeping Eastern Europe & by now Russia itself. The arrival of Bashar Assad to power in the middle of this period was seen as an impetus to accelerate #Syria ‘s pivot to “reform”

11-When Bashar Assad took over, #Syria had no private banks, insurance companies, stock market or any global food franchises. At the time, it seemed natural that Eco would get its reform by embracing the above industries (FIRE Eco stood for finance, insurance & Real Esate)

12- Old time Baathists were seen as passé by now. They didn’t understand how this FIRE Eco works. Capital was taken away from industry or bank accounts overseas & was being poured into banks & insurance companies. Some of the early returns were indeed spectacular. But for who?

13-Banks needed capital to register & operate. Avg ticket to earn you a seat as initial investor in one of those banks was around $1 million & even if you had that number, it was not easy to get in. Returns were so sure that many of the wealthy wanted to grab as much as possible

14- Not only capital owners were benefiting but also young urban graduates who spoke English & had some of the basic skills that banks and insurance companies needed to staff their expanding businesses. By & large, urban wealthy centers were all seeing the positive ripple effects

15-Now let’s go back to that age cohort that is by now 25 years of age. Remember that it’s part of family size of 7-9. It had likely moved from rural parts to periphery of Urban centers. It likely lives in illegal housing. Speaks no English. Has little education to suit FIRE Eco

16- The age cohort born at peak of Syria ‘s fertility rate and now at age 25 that is now looking for nearly 300k jobs a years suddenly finds itself totally unprepared for the new landscape. Their father’s farms are gone. Their uncle’s Govt jobs have been frozen.

17-The kind of eco reforms that were embraced run totally contradictory to the immediate needs of this massive age cohort who needed 300k jobs a year & salaries to pay for their housing & other needs which were by then experiencing massive runaway prices

18-In late 2008, I recall walking w friend next to four seasons hotel in Damascus. Pair of Prada shoes were in display w price tag of SYP 20k. We both wondered how that Avg 25 year old would react seeing this while Avg govt monthly salary was barely half that amount

19-There were two Syrias by 2010. In one Syria the urban, educated, wealthy capital rich segment was enjoying the fruits of the FIRE reform. In the second Syria, it was illegal housing, super low wages adjusted for inflation and scores of young jobless men coming of age

20- The size of #Syria ‘s cake was not big enough for all. Many of those in the periphery really struggled to get near the cake and they naturally blamed the system. And the system came to mean everything and everyone closer to the cake than they were

21-In sum, #Syria was victim of end of the Cold War. It found it v hard to reform its top down centralized system. By time it decided to reform, it picked kind of reform that a significant part of its society was ill-prepared for helping add to the already increasing Eco divide