As you can read in Steven's thread above, the options range from "pretty rough" to "nuclear"
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With the S-400 arriving, let's review the buffet of US sanctions options under CAATSAhttps://twitter.com/stevenacook/status/1148224462275436545 …
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Since president is required* to use 5 out of 12 of the options the floor is: 1) opposing loans from IFIs 2) no US procurement 3) no Ex-Im Bank assistance 4) no US investment in sanctioned persons 5) no visas for sanctioned individuals *usual suspension/waiver caveats apply
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Then there is a further set up the escalation ladder: 6) sanctions on executive officers 7) ban on property transactions subject to US jurisdiction 8) prohibition on sanctioned financial institution dealing in US debt 9) denial of export licenses (think defense items)
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And end with the pretty much salting the earth steps: 10) prohibiting loans from US financial institutions to sanctioned entities 11) foreign exchange: prohibiting clearing transactions in USD 12) prohibiting banking transactions though US financial institutions
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There can of course be disagreement about what exactly is the biggest or smallest concern for Turkey and for entities that could be sanctioned, but the point is any 5 of these 12 items would be a step with real consequences for Turkey.
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Presumably the first step wouldn't be the absolute death-blow ones (foreign exchange, banking transactions), but even the middle ground will be very harsh.
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I still struggle to understand why, with all of these possible sanctions (especially 10-12, which would wreck Turkey's economy given short-term external debt rollover risk), Turkey seems so adamant about the s400s.
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