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The new Med Dialogue report on MENA 2030 is out - based on a strategic foresight exercise of our Mediterranean Advisory Group, including 8 scenarios for peace and security in the region: https://www.kas.de/web/poldimed/single-title/-/content/mena-2030-a-strategic-foresight-exercise … Key take-aways in this thread (incl my personal GIF interpretations)pic.twitter.com/xEaCiWD8r0
The scenarios suggest that the MENA will see the dissolution of traditional arrangements and the emergence of new forms of cross-regional cooperation vis-a-vis increasing domestic pressures such as population growth, climate change, political fragmentation and economic hardship.pic.twitter.com/vItFaDk7pc
In addition to already prolonged conflicts, the next ten years might see an increased risk for growing militarization in and around MENA; the disorder caused by the disintegration of traditional structures can lead to significant changes in the regional security setup.pic.twitter.com/21itUCSPcd
Trend #1: States are currently negotiating their alignments within the dynamic competition between global and regional powers. No-one wants to draw the short straw in regional power politics, yet the odds are not clear enough to know how to best save national interests.pic.twitter.com/8lHlgNcUkz
Trend #2: Due to ongoing antagonism, states such as Israel, Turkey and Iran feel pushed back into strategic culture of self-reliance / "strategic loneliness" which might encourage them to overestimate their own capabilities and take things into their own hands.pic.twitter.com/vQ1pGg3C8i
Trend #3: The MENA region will further disintegrate; regional institutions not been successful in bridging rivalries; multilateral negotiations and regional cooperation initiatives have reached a gridlock; re-nationalization of strategic priorities driven countries further apart.pic.twitter.com/VMxfTZjsr8
Trend #4: While the US is withdrawing its presence from the region and challenging NATO which, in turn, is likely to lose touch with its direct contact point to MENA, the EU appears heavily fragmented over MS' foreign policies. International institutions are crumbling by 2030.pic.twitter.com/4dGroXGevz
Trend #5: The region will witness a shift towards authoritarian structures, heightened nationalism and identity politics. Due to domestic pressures, national GOVs will reach limits of their capacities & MENA might see already looming emergence of fragile authoritarian alliancespic.twitter.com/c0xaohh50x
Trend #6: Despite the fact that the set-up of a region-spanning security architecture is not deemed likely, experts noted that MENA will still see the opening of pockets of cooperation and interest-based ad-hoc alliances between states that share similar risks.pic.twitter.com/scrSlR89jU
Trend #7: On a positive note, there are opportunities for common approaches with regards to long-term challenges that similarly affect all states of the region such as fight vs. terrorism/OC, need for political reform and economic diversification, combatting water scarcity, etc.pic.twitter.com/JkzlkmTl3l
Many thanks to @russia_mideast, @benedettabertiw, @Faiyla, @koertdebeuf @Eljarh, @MaryFitzger, @FlorenceGaub, @EllieGeranmayeh, @AdelAGhafar, @kristinakausch, @MichaelSinghDC, @stutzmann and @lexstutzi, among others, who participated in the MAG exercise.
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