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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Mar 18

    NEW -- " Says Is Defeated. Reality Says Otherwise" - My new article for takes a look at what remains of in & ... the news isn't good.

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  2. : On the surface, might present its 4yr effort in as a success, but to all extents & purposes, a withdrawal now won't be perceived by many - especially & - as an victory. To the contrary. Little different than a US withdrawal today.

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  3. "Fix a problem or get out" is a well-known military motto, says . Having pushed the from south ; squeezed ; & trained locals & mercenaries, an withdrawal makes strategic sense - particularly post- '18

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  4. After 4yrs of war, a humanitarian crisis & widespread international criticism, the is set to withdraw from anti- efforts in . Any remaining resources will focus on fighting & :

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  6. This is a good piece, but I find it odd - and that's a generous descriptor - that the term "" wasn't mentioned even once. In several -an countries, that just happens to define why / returnees face arrest, interrogation, scrutiny & in some cases, prosecution.

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  7. This doesn't quite align with what I've learned in recent weeks about the side of D-. Nevertheless, the clock is ticking & every day that goes by sees U.S. leverage decrease & the likelihood of a severe resurgence increase. In , it's already underway.

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  8. 's delivery of weapons to the NW front is consistent with what I've been told of their stance [until now]: - No formal militia deployment; no blood lost - -coordinated assistance will be limited to arms deliveries, logistics & artillery.

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  9. Retweeted
    4 hours ago

    Insightful panel at on 's new book about 's rebellion and the nature of the Asad regime. Hosted by , with panelists and .

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  10. "President , you stopped a massacre in before... You can do it again." - airs new ad on , aiming directly for :

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  11. The called “indispensable.” said it was "the most detailed account yet written" called it “yeoman’s work.” called it “magisterial." said it was "the definitive guide."

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  12. The , & have all covered 's installation of secret apps on tourist phones to scan for banned materials. Included in the list of 73000 forbidden files are photos of the Dalai Lama, Arabic dictionary & my book, .

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  13. If 's supporters want to consider why ~40% of is rubble; the economy is crippled; society divided; & the state's in pieces, they ought to take a look inward. 8yrs of bullets, missiles, barrel bombs, ballistic missiles, chemical weapons -- that's what "caused" this.

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  14. 's supporters like to talk about "cause & effect" to explain why 's regime is incapable of restoring services & stability. They're profoundly wrong. The initial "cause" was 's decision to torture, shoot, shell, bomb & gas those seeking (1) reform & (2) change.

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  15. Jul 2
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  16. Jul 2

    These are striking statistics. With fighting now limited to ~3% of 's territory, opposition forces in 2019 look set to match use in 2014 **nationwide** Stockpiling & crucially, renewed supplies, are clearly having a big effect.

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  17. Jul 2

    This is a damning indictment of & its ability to govern territory -- it's likely a matter of resources & will. Even appears unable to ameliorate a lack of electricity, phone lines, water, education, healthcare & more.

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  18. Jul 2

    Since retaking southern , the regime has proven incapable of restoring basic services. Some locals have begun personally funding local service restoration, using crowdfunding: ’s-residents-paying-out-of-pocket-for-public-services/

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  19. Jul 2

    : Moreover, the U.S. Govt's National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), declared the as the 's affiliate in ... until 2014, when we began working with... the /.

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  20. Jul 2

    : And as a periodic reminder, the acknowledged on its own website that it was part of the : That website has - unsurprisingly - since been deleted.

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  21. Jul 2

    Jim Matthews was the 1st national to be charged with terrorism offenses after joining the . Charges were later dropped, due to a lack of evidence. Matthews' case underlined the blurry nature of / membership - given (a) affiliation & (b) its fight vs. .

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