Charles ListerVerified account

@Charles_Lister

Senior Fellow & Director of at . Author of . Following , armed groups, , & T/RT≠ endorsement.

Washington, DC
mei.edu/profile/charle…
Joined January 2012
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Mar 18

    NEW -- " Says Is Defeated. Reality Says Otherwise" - My new article for takes a look at what remains of in & ... the news isn't good.

    15 replies 121 retweets 124 likes
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  2. 12 hours ago

    In a new article for , argues that recent developments in NW could in fact give an opportunity to re-enforce the arrangement:

    3 replies 3 retweets 9 likes
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  3. 12 hours ago

    A brief 4-part thread from me last week, arguing that through *inaction,* may have won its greatest strategic victory in in recent weeks.

    At today's -- trilateral meeting in , repeated 's desire to see leave . …
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    2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
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  4. Retweeted
    17 hours ago

    : BUT, yesterday's development was more complex than simply a strike against "Huras al-Din." In fact, most of the figures killed were recently expelled (& linked to those expelled) from the group for being 'too hardline' in refusing to assist in .

    2 replies 4 retweets 10 likes
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  5. Retweeted
    17 hours ago

    : That a US strike targeted in NW for the first time in ~2yrs is a significant development (Why? See thread above). Bear in mind also that U.S. intelligence now considers "Huras al-Din" (not ) as 's affiliate - see:

    I'm coming to this late, but it's very interesting to see that in its 2019 report, U.S. excludes in from a map of AQ & affiliates globally - only Huras al-Din named.
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    2 replies 3 retweets 8 likes
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  6. 14 hours ago

    In all honesty, this is a real shame, as ISW's philosophy has traditionally been to focus on granular analysis, rooted in deep research - something so rare these days. Their top-line conclusions are mostly credible, but all-too often, filled with simplistic black/white framing.

    2 replies 5 retweets 17 likes
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  7. 14 hours ago

    This seems to have been the same issue with ISW's recent paper on in & . There's no doubt is already resurgent, but seeing every sign of violence & instability as -induced doesn't do anyone any favors. The section on is wildly off the mark.

    1 reply 2 retweets 8 likes
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  8. 14 hours ago

    is a damn complicated place with ever-intricate dynamics. Attributing everything to (while giving sourcing that doesn't support your claims) is at best analytically useless & at worst analytically dangerous - it blurs details & vital nuance for policy considerations.

    1 reply 4 retweets 10 likes
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  9. 14 hours ago

    ISW also says has conducted x4 "drone swarm attacks." BUT none of the attacks nor ISW's sources attribute anything to . 1/4 wasn't even confirmed to be drones. May 16 - "Grad rockets or drones," no attribution May 18 - no attribution June 1 - [same] June 26 - [same]

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  10. 14 hours ago

    - has been behind 1 (not 3) attacks; a strike on June 6th (not 7th). - The June 19 incident involved an anti-aircraft gun, not . - The June 28 was claimed by al-Fatah al-Mubeen ops room, made up of 20+ groups (not just ). It was Faylaq al-Sham

    1 reply 5 retweets 5 likes
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  11. 14 hours ago

    The Fateh Dimashq Operations Room existed for a matter of days & has been replaced by multiple new iterations, depending on geography, factions involved etc. 's role in Ops Room creation has been negligible, if anything. In fact, MIT opposed entering it altogether.

    1 reply 4 retweets 5 likes
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  12. 14 hours ago

    - To someone who's worked non-stop on for 8yrs, sentences like this are an immediate turn-off: " is leading the opposition defense of Greater Province." (not AQ) are certainly very strong, but it's a little more complex than such facile descriptions.

    1 reply 7 retweets 20 likes
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  13. 14 hours ago

    I'm glad to see /NW getting some attention, but there are so many problems with this report. - First off, just stop calling "'s affiliate" - there's just no analytical logic that justifies such simplicity. All objective evidence points against.

    Pro-Bashar al Assad forces have suffered significant losses in greater Idlib province in northwest . Assad cannot conquer this region without significantly more military support from and .
    5 replies 46 retweets 77 likes
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  14. 15 hours ago

    Rumors that cleared this -linked attack & provided protection for those conducting it are just that: rumors. It's at best irresponsible to share such gossip.

    This is seriously alarming, to say the least. - Drone attacks that struck oil pipelines on May 14 2019 were launched from , not .…
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  15. 15 hours ago

    This is seriously alarming, to say the least. - Drone attacks that struck oil pipelines on May 14 2019 were launched from , not . Both the drone & explosives used differed from equipment.

    1 reply 20 retweets 19 likes
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  16. 15 hours ago

    "By claiming that every time we threaten to fire a missile we are getting another or another — please indicate that I’m stamping my fist on the table as I’m doing this — we are asking to go back to the 1930s." - Amb. Jim Jeffrey:

    1 reply 5 retweets 7 likes
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  17. 15 hours ago

    In an example of fateful coincidence, just held its annual meeting in... (why?!) At the event, covered by state media, NRC's regional head "lauded" NRC's support from 's Foreign Ministry & Asma al-Assad's Syria Trust for Development

    2 replies 8 retweets 4 likes
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  18. 16 hours ago

    According to the report, works with 's Interior Ministry, despite it being sanctioned by the EU & linked to human rights abuses, war crimes, repression of & more. The Interior Minister is also sanctioned - he's the former Political Intel chief.

    2 replies 3 retweets 2 likes
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  19. 16 hours ago

    According to the report, works with multiple bodies linked to the , the -n Army, militias & sanctioned officials. Some OCHA work in was done through a "foundation" owned by the provincial chief of all militia operations.

    2 replies 7 retweets 5 likes
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  20. 16 hours ago

    This is extraordinary work by & an utterly damning indictment of (1) the regime's co-optation of aid & (2) NGO's complicity in a corrupt, criminal system. Bravo :

    1 reply 27 retweets 33 likes
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  21. 16 hours ago

    This is an interesting piece, but it over-defines "AQ": - Most "pragmatism" we see now from affiliates goes against new instruction from AQ's Af-Pak leadership - The best example of "pragmatism" is in , but AQ has effectively expelled it *for being pragmatic*

    How to Win Friends and Wage Jihad: Understanding al Qaeda’s Pragmatism
    2 replies 4 retweets 8 likes
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