While Imamoglu’s win certainly boosts the opposition’s hopes and provides new political opportunities for the alliance behind him, the fact remains that Turkey has a hybrid regime combining authoritarian and democratic features.
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I read discussions about how “democracy won” after opposition’s convincing victory in the Istanbul mayoral elections. Some conclude that this win is an indication of Turkish democracy’s strength. This is surely a misplaced conclusion.
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Opposition can register significant election wins under hybrid regimes. In Iran, Hatemi won the 1997 & 2001 presidential elections, reformists won the 2000 parliamentary elections in landslides. In Venezuela, the opposition won a supermajority in 2015 legislative elections.
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In these cases of opposition success in hybrid regimes, actors controlling the state fought back and curtailed the newly acquired power of the opposition. They use various institutions (courts, bureaucracy, etc.) to maintain control and don't have to depend on election results.
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The AKP has various tools to curtail Imamoglu and other CHP mayors’ powers. There are already attempts underway.http://almon.co/3851
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I am not writing these to underplay Imamoglu’s impressive success. The alliance who supported him overcame a heavily tilted electoral field, constant state harassment and an unfavorable media environment and exposed AKP’s vulnerabilities.
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Yet, the optimism this generated needs to be a cautious optimism. Similar to autocrats in other hybrid regimes, the AKP will use different institutional tools to curtail the opposition’s new-found powers and optimism. The opposition better prepares for this new struggle ahead.
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Another question is how come the AKP candidate still garners 45 percent of the votes considering Turkey's economic, political and diplomatic problems? Do they live on the moon?
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Identity politics
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