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Seen numerous articles trying to discern the “intentions” of the tribes of Jazeera region and who they “align” with; #1; the tribes are not a monolith and have different historic experiences in dealing with the #Syrian State & the other communities who reside in the region /1
#2 because of numerous issues ranging from the way the Assad Regime tried to undermine the traditional power structure of the tribal heirarchy to climate change inducing migration, the last 50 years has created numerous changes to the “tribes” @hxhassan /2
#3 if some overarching themes come out across the board its one of a group of people who are part of a well resourced portion of #Syria who have been serially dispossessed of their political & economic rights- same as the other communities in Jazeera @BASSAMPDC /3
#4 if some tribal factions or families act more “transactional” than others or seem less concerned with whose in charge & more worried about access to money & resources its a result of numerous armed groups & state actors winning & losing control of the region. /4
hard to ask them to throw their lot in with anyone in specific when theres little stability & its hard to know who will be in charge for the longterm with any certainty. So keeping communication open with all sides in such circumstances is pragmatic given conflict dynamics /5
#5 historic under-resourcing of Jazeera region & lack of services has created mistrust & feeling that only ones own community is going to provide support & access to a normal life. In this case, it will take effort to change a mentality built on decades of bad experiences /6
This is a reasonable analysis, Sasha.
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