Brett McGurkVerified account

@brett_mcgurk

Payne Distinguished Lecturer . Foreign Affairs Analyst /. Former Presidential Envoy. Served under Bush, Obama, Trump. Dad. .

Palo Alto, CA
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/people/brett-m…
Joined April 2013
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    31 Dec 2018

    Today was my last day at the State Department. I wish my former civilian and military colleagues well as they work under extremely difficult circumstances to protect the interests of our great country. It was a privilege to serve alongside them.

    2,178 replies 6,165 retweets 35,037 likes
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  2. Retweeted
    Jun 18

    How could ’s strategy change in the near future? Check out our newest podcast with and former special presidential envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat :

    10 retweets 10 likes
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  3. Jun 18

    In spectacular today for the 2019 . Look forward to reconnecting with former counterparts and friends from around the globe, many trying largely on their own to mediate some of the world’s most intractable conflicts.

    3 replies 3 retweets 22 likes
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  4. Retweeted
    Jun 16

    Congrats to the 2019 Masters in International Policy graduating class today! Great ceremony for terrific people.

    2 replies 4 retweets 69 likes
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  5. Retweeted
    Jun 16

    I'm slow getting to it, but this is an excellent thread by on the dangerous contradictions in Trump Administration Iran policy.

    On the current situation with Iran, absent a critical review of assumptions in DC and adjustment of current policy the risks of military confrontation — intended or unintended — will continue to rise. I wrote in last…
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    1 reply 28 retweets 50 likes
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  6. Retweeted
    Jun 14

    Fascinating thread...

    On the current situation with Iran, absent a critical review of assumptions in DC and adjustment of current policy the risks of military confrontation — intended or unintended — will continue to rise. I wrote in last…
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    2 replies 27 retweets 43 likes
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  7. Retweeted
    Jun 14

    A very troubling thread of what happened this week that will shape our world long after Trump’s tweets are forgotten.

    If you focus on the signal and not the noise as has been saying, here’s what happened last week alone (some broader strategic trend-lines worth noting when considering the issue of Iran and US strategy)👇
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    63 replies 147 retweets 343 likes
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  8. Jun 14

    Bottom line: Iran is a real problem. But this policy is piling on strategic risk with little reward. It’s driving allies away & peer-competitors together. It’s not leading to talks but increasing risk of conflict. It’s ramifications go beyond the Middle East. Worth reassessing.

    47 replies 156 retweets 439 likes
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  9. Jun 14

    With smoking tankers attributable to Iran, this would be an opportune time to bring China and even Russia into a diplomatic coalition given that threats in the Gulf impact their own economies. Not unthinkable before. Now impossible: thus advantaging Iran, and limiting US options.

    9 replies 51 retweets 178 likes
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  10. Jun 14

    China has now afforded highest diplomatic status to Iran — and also Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt — positioning itself for the next 50 years on four pillars. I wrote about this trend-line in after a seminar👇

    2 replies 88 retweets 177 likes
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  11. Jun 14

    China and Russia have also made a decision with respect to US policies in the Middle East. They believe our zero-sum objectives on Iran as well as Syria cannot be achieved (given incoherence in resourcing, Trump’s aversion to more investment, mixed messages, and basic reality).

    4 replies 53 retweets 156 likes
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  12. Jun 14

    Our intelligence community similarly warned earlier this year that “China and Russia are more aligned than at any point since the 1950s” and the tend is likely to grow due to “perceived US unilateralism and interventionism.”

    6 replies 107 retweets 233 likes
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  13. Jun 14

    This trend threatens to reverse a signal achievement of the Cold War and runs totally contrary to Trump’s own national security strategy with emphasis on great power competition, and needlessly avoiding Chinese-Russian convergence.

    7 replies 54 retweets 166 likes
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  14. Jun 14

    Today, both Putin and Xi met with Iranian President Rouhani and expressed their full support for Iran even in the wake of smoking tankers and US evidence that Iran was unquestionably behind the attack.

    22 replies 132 retweets 206 likes
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  15. Jun 14

    2) Chinese and Russian military commands meet to discuss deepening strategic partnerships.

    3 replies 78 retweets 153 likes
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  16. Jun 14

    1) China’s President Xi completes a historic three-day visit to Moscow and hails strategic ties with Putin.

    3 replies 83 retweets 192 likes
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  17. Jun 14

    If you focus on the signal and not the noise as has been saying, here’s what happened last week alone (some broader strategic trend-lines worth noting when considering the issue of Iran and US strategy)👇

    20 replies 82 retweets 179 likes
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  18. Jun 14

    This incoherence has ramifications beyond Iran; it’s weakening our position globally. Iran is a 5th-rate power. Its economy is smaller than our poorest state. Its defense budget a fraction of our regional allies. China & Russia are our near-peer rivals — and now sense advantage.

    8 replies 90 retweets 229 likes
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  19. Jun 14

    Was that a coherent sequence and plan? Did Trump know about it? Did Abe? Did anyone think such an announcement would help the visit of our key ally, made at the behest of Trump himself? Was it intended to sabotage the visit? In any event, it’s peculiar diplomacy/sequencing.

    4 replies 59 retweets 204 likes
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  20. Jun 14

    Worse, Trump asked a key ally to carry a message to Tehran and float dialogue but less than one week before Abe visits, Trump’s national security team announces significant new sanctions against Iran. This is how Bolton set up the Abe trip:

    Iran is spending its money to fund & conduct terrorism, resulting in serious economic problems that will only get worse. The President has given Iran the opportunity to pursue a better future, but first the regime must end its 40-year reign of terror.
    9 replies 119 retweets 219 likes
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  21. Jun 14

    In Japan, Trump said he opposes regime change & only wants to talk about the nuclear file (albeit after leaving the table where that file is discussed). Pompeo in Switzerland floats talks without preconditions. Bolton then tweets Iran must “first end its 40-year reign of terror.”

    1 reply 48 retweets 156 likes
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