Sam Heller

@AbuJamajem

Senior Analyst, Non-State Armed Groups, . Looking at jihadism, one eye still on Syria. Jamajem means 🏴‍☠️. Contact:

Beirut, Lebanon
crisisgroup.org/who-we-are/peo…
Joined September 2011
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    May 29

    My latest, for : What global threat does a "de-territorialized" Islamic State pose, post-"caliphate"? A detailed look at planned attacks in Lebanon last year can help demystify the group's non-territorial external operations capability:

    3 replies 74 retweets 116 likes
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  2. Retweeted
    23 minutes ago

    The Gulf depends heavily on desalination for water; if critical infrastructure like that gets taken out (or is under threat), there are serious implications for the economy and civilian population. It's another layer of escalation that might not be immediately visible from DC.

    7 retweets 10 likes
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  3. Retweeted
    24 minutes ago

    Shooting down of the US drone near (or over) Iran (depending who you ask) may be more provocative to US-Iran tensions. But for the Gulf, there is nothing more provocative than striking critical infrastructure like the desalination plane in Jizan. That is seriously spooky for Gulf

    1 reply 17 retweets 23 likes
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  4. 34 minutes ago

    . thread on the global crisis of forced displacement and the necessity of resolving the conflicts driving it:

    ’s latest figures show the number of people fleeing conflict & persecution exceeded 70 million in 2018, the highest number recorded in almost 70 years.…
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    1 retweet 2 likes
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  5. Retweeted
    2 hours ago

    In light of the IRGC's downing of a U.S. drone earlier today, and a series of other recent incidents in and around the Strait of Hormuz, we're elevating the threat level at that flashpoint to Critical on the U.S.-Iran Trigger List.

    Iran made a very big mistake!
    1 reply 14 retweets 30 likes
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  6. Retweeted
    2 hours ago

    Just talked to a contact who talked to Chadian troops in Nigeria who say they had it rough this time against in the Lake area. It was no longer the of 2015, which soldiers from Chad had pushed around easily. Something has changed.

    5 replies 10 retweets 10 likes
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  7. 1 hour ago

    Nothing new here: Al-Houl is served by the UN’s Qamishli office (which reports to its Damascus office), as is the whole northeast. UN cross-border aid via al-Ya’roubiyah is minimal. Al-Houl is additionally served by ICRC, SARC, and international NGOs unregistered with Damascus.

    I heard recently that the has placed the entire al-Hol aid operation under the authority of its office in... . That places the US & in a very vulnerable position, whereby …
    1 reply 4 retweets 10 likes
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  8. 2 hours ago

    . has likewise called on Turkey and Russia to stabilize Idlib by recommitting to their September agreement, sparing more displacement and bloodshed:

    3 retweets 3 likes
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  9. 3 hours ago

    UN humanitarian chief Tuesday: ~330,000 have fled their homes amid Idlib battles, with displacement camps overfull and those who’ve stayed behind hiding in basements. SG Guterres calls on Turkey and Russia to “stabilize the situation.”

    1 reply 8 retweets
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  10. Retweeted
    6 hours ago

    Maximum pressure on Venezuela. On North Korea On Iran On the Palestinians A similar assumption in all cases: that by squeezing hard and dangling the promise of a bright economic future, US demands will be met A similar outcome as well: it doesn’t work

    15 replies 91 retweets 154 likes
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  11. Retweeted
    6 hours ago

    See our first Briefing Note for commentary on developments of the past week, including Iran's statement re: its growing low-enriched uranium stockpile, and 's claim that Iran is responsible for recent attacks in the Gulf region.

    2 replies 8 retweets 6 likes
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  12. Jun 19

    . on Iraq’s stalled reconstruction:

    1 retweet 7 likes
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  13. Retweeted
    Jun 18

    I missed this first time round, but great detail in IS’s remote control terrorism phase: A Glimpse into the Islamic State’s External Operations, Post-Caliphate 

    1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
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  14. Retweeted
    Jun 18

    . on why Kelly Craft, the US amb-designate to the UN, needs to win back some friends for the US, why Washington can't write off Turtle Bay, and where Craft can make her mark. As always, a good read. via

    3 retweets
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  15. Retweeted
    Jun 18

    Since 1 May, an est. 330,000 people have been forced to flee their homes in Idlib, Syria - almost double the number of newly displaced people since my last briefing to the Security Council, a month ago. My update:

    5 replies 72 retweets 63 likes
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  16. Retweeted
    Jun 18

    The internally displaced leaving Rukban are all taken to temporary shelters in Homs governorate. Get the latest figures in our SNAPSHOT on Rukban.

    1 reply 4 retweets 4 likes
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  17. Jun 18

    7. In all: ISF doesn't make clear whether this would-be attacker was just virtually networked or actually received substantive guidance and direction from IS. Still, the similarities to "Deadly Cheese" make this plot look like a ready template, with or without external inputs.

    1 reply
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  18. Jun 18

    6. The suspect also tried to recruit an accomplice (likewise arrested), as the "Deadly Cheese" agent was similarly instructed by his IS handler.

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  19. Jun 18

    5. ISF makes it sound like he took the initiative to download bomb-making manuals himself, and wasn't given the same sort of video walkthrough as the "Deadly Cheese" agent. There's no indication IS delivered him explosives or weapons, as they managed last year.

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  20. Jun 18

    4. ISF doesn't make clear whether those "people with whom he was in contact" (presumably online) were fellow IS supporters egging him on, or the sort of IS handlers that provided technical and targeting guidance to the "Deadly Cheese" agent. The prospective targets were similar.

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  21. Jun 18

    3. Per ISF, the suspect "discussed with a number of people with whom he was in contact" carrying out IS action in Lebanon, including targeting churches – soon after Baghdadi had blessed the Sri Lanka Easter attacks in his last video – and Shi'ite Husseiniyat.

    1 reply
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