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POTUS has to certify (Im paraphrasing) that Turkey would be weaning off Russian kit. Now can he lie, sure. But it would be politically costly. It also would do nothing, zip, nada about the F-35 issue. That language is contained in a separate piece of legislation (NDAA)
Waiver would last for 180 days and then we would do this all over again. July 15 + 180 days = January 11, 2020, which is after the notional deployment date in October (assuming that hasnt been moved up, although this is commiserate with 5 month training timeline starting in May)
This is why the US has played hard ball with a hard acquisition delay. And why once that training started for TSK in Moscow the ball game was over and the ship has sailed. G-20 is fine. Talks are fine. But one needs to place talks into their broader context.
The US does not operate like Russia, and therefore trying to Russianize US-Turkish relations on this issue will not work.
Waiver and Delay are two separate things. 1- Trump can issue a waiver but must explain why it is in US interests 2- Delays can be issued every 180 days to facilitate fewer transactions with Russia.https://www.state.gov/countering-americas-adversaries-through-sanctions-act-of-2017/sections-231-and-235/ …
You do realize that CAATSA is not the only piece of legislation out there...
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