Don Nawzar

2- Most of the polls show a lead (small/large) for the YES vote.However, Mr. Erdogan wants to win with a larger majority no less than 55%

3- Kurdish vote, nationalist Turks loyalty to MHP's leader Bahceli & the size of 'disheartened' AKP faction will decide the YES win margin

4- If those 3 factors were all in favour of YES the win margin will be huge up to 60%.If they were all against YES, the NO vote has a chance

5- The referendum is a survey of Erdogan's popularity & not the amendments. AKP hasn't come up with a coherent argument for presidency.

6- The NO campaign has behaved very different this time by trying not to antagonise AKP voters,run a positive campaign,less focus on Erdogan

7- Size of 'undecided voters' is larger than what it's in the polls. Any major political & security development before 16/4 affects results

8- A possible NO victory in Istanbul will be a mental blow to AKP. AKP has put all its weight in Istanbul in the final days.

9- Preventing coups & potential disputes b/w president & prime minister are given as reasons to justify the amendments to the constitution

10- The change in system does bring about a strong president. However, how can a strong president prevent coups? It isn't clear.

11- Similarly, in case of a president from party A & a majority in parliament from party B, no mechanism is set to solve possible crisis.

12- How these amendments help solve the issues of army's intervention in politics, politsizied judiciary & secret coup attempts?

13- Mr. Erdogan is making the single biggest mistake in his public career with these changes. There'll be many unintended consequences.

14- Many people some even fierce rivals of Erdogan ask rightfully, what will happen after Erdogan? AKP doesn't want to think of an answer.

15- While the short term results of a YES win means a stronger Erdogan & a more polarised Turkey, the long term consequences are ambiguous

16- Regardless of the results, Erdogan has some tough calls to makes after 16/4 many which will decide Turkey's fate in near & far future.