1. Erdogan is confused & that is what happens when you consolidate all power without having a voice of reason among your close circles.
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2. When Syria protests erupted in 2011, he sent his PM to convince Assad. Now he himself calls Rouhani in a show of support.
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3. Erdogan has learnt lesson from Syria & he applies it to Iran. He is known for his U-turn but still doesn't want to do a U-turn on Assad.
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4. Turkey has accepted the realities of Middle East & Erdogan the idealist is gone forever. This is evident in all his latest moves.
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5. The problem is Turkey is all about Erdogan now. Institutions don't work. Judiciary, security & army are weakened.
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6. If Erdogan lives long enough & retains power long enough, he might be able to redesign Turkish state the way he wants.
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7. But nothing is stable about Turkey. Any moment a coup may take place l, a Gezi-style protest may erupt or elections may disrupt the flow.
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8. Erdogan still wants to leave a legacy but he may first need to survive. He is racing against time & many enemies with almost no friends.
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9. Erdogan is himself to be blamed for all of this. He alienated Gul & sacked Davutoglu who could have become heirs to his legacy.
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10. Erdogan may die as a strong man but his legacy may not survive his death and the party he dedicated his life to may evaporate after him.
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