A thread of threads coming up: First, the excellent @AliAlleile spells out why the US strategy for northeast Syria isn’t working and probably won’t in the eastern part of it: Deir al-Zour. The tribes are restive & resent the US # 1 ally, the YPGhttps://twitter.com/alialleile/status/1139863364572762112 …
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Liz Sly Retweeted Nicholas A Heras
2/ Thread 2 is
@NicholasAHeras’s response to@AliAlleile: he suggests 2 options: 1) pull out SDF/YPG & empower the tribes to be in charge, with Saudi & US support 2) absorb the tribes into a larger civilian structure. Either way, YPG isn’t in the picturehttps://twitter.com/nicholasaheras/status/1139916902812327936?s=21 …Liz Sly added,
Nicholas A Heras @NicholasAHeras1/This thread by@AliAlleile of@DeirEzzor24 on the challenges for the#SDF in E#Syria (#DeirEzzor) is provocative. It's well worth the read and should prompt discussion on the future of the US-led Coalition (#CJTFOIR) there. So let's deep dive, shall we? https://twitter.com/AliAlleile/status/1139863364572762112?s=19 …Show this thread3 replies 4 retweets 6 likesShow this thread -
Liz Sly Retweeted Kirk H. Sowell
Thread 3: from
@UticaRisk, who accepts there’s a mess but says US didn’t make a mistake. It accepted the risk of disgruntled Sunni tribes as inevitable if they were to defeat ISIS, which meant relying on the YPG/Kurds.https://twitter.com/uticarisk/status/1139963545964240897?s=21 …Liz Sly added,
Kirk H. Sowell @UticaRiskThis thread of Kurd-Arab problems in NE Syria is being widely discussed & promoted (in my TL by@ImaraWaTijara@joshua_landis & others) & while I don't dispute the facts asserted I think there is another policy angle to make. https://twitter.com/AliAlleile/status/1139863364572762112 …Show this thread2 replies 6 retweets 7 likesShow this thread -
4/ Throwing in my own thread’s worth; I’m not sure the US did calculate that risk. They bought into the SDF fiction and many officials told me Arab-Kurd relations weren’t fraught like they are in Iraq.
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And I’m not sure
@NicholasAHeras’s two options work if it is true, as the@AliAlleile thread says, that the US is dealing with the wrong tribes, the tiny minority that accepts them and not the 90 percent who don’t. Very much echoes of Iraq circa 2005/6.5 replies 0 retweets 9 likesShow this thread
There are no “right tribes” and nowadays anyone with a big belly and a hundred wives can claim to be a sheikh. And even if he’s right, do we need another مجحم ابن مهيد?
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Good point, and this is exactly what happened when the US decided to start dealing through "tribes" in Iraq. It seems a hopeless situation because aren't all the other potential leaders either in Damascus or Turkey, having been driven out either by PYD or ISIS?
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