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Thread 3: from @UticaRisk, who accepts there’s a mess but says US didn’t make a mistake. It accepted the risk of disgruntled Sunni tribes as inevitable if they were to defeat ISIS, which meant relying on the YPG/Kurds.https://twitter.com/uticarisk/status/1139963545964240897?s=21 …
4/ Throwing in my own thread’s worth; I’m not sure the US did calculate that risk. They bought into the SDF fiction and many officials told me Arab-Kurd relations weren’t fraught like they are in Iraq.
And I’m not sure @NicholasAHeras’s two options work if it is true, as the @AliAlleile thread says, that the US is dealing with the wrong tribes, the tiny minority that accepts them and not the 90 percent who don’t. Very much echoes of Iraq circa 2005/6.
perhaps: it was money & guns as the WW1 started & today it is still money & guns + one can't buy an Arab tribe only rent it's services for a certain period of time + Kurds/Turks even if they fight, built a republic together w/as Kurds/Arabs never gelled to create a proper state.
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