Nibras Kazimi

@ImaraWaTijara

Nibras Kazimi's Arabic-language blog, and Talisman Gate, Again (in English)

Baghdad, DC
imarawatijara.com
Joined March 2011
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Feb 22

    Essay, August 2018: Stations Along the Rim (...I’ll be adding some thoughts and updates to it under this thread)

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  2. 18 hours ago

    Important thread; revealing

    For years till now, the Americans have not realized the extent of the mistakes they have repeatedly made with regard to the tribes file particularly in .
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  3. Jun 13

    5. I share this note to demonstrate how much further ahead Soleimani has gotten when compared to his adversaries around the region, and within the regime. He wouldn’t have been able to do what he did in Syr/Iraq/Leb otherwise. Even with all the spotlight, it remains a blind spot.

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  4. Jun 13

    4. There’s a line in there about how Soleimani had to figure out his own financing. Yesterday US Treasury finally caught up (somewhat sloppily) with how he was doing it in Iraq, by designating this company (the following material is from my notes a few years ago):

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  5. Jun 13

    3.

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  6. Jun 13

    2. Precedent is not useful here; the past stands in the way of clarity. We can tell that by watching Soleimani, even though my own sources on him disagree with me. It is difficult to envision a system upended, but that is what I think is happening. This from Aug last year:

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  7. Jun 13

    1. Logically, one should defer to this fellow over Iran/IRGC matters. I am far from being knowledgeable on these stories. But I would wager that this argument no longer holds true. Tehran is changing. DC is changing. The way NatSec consensus used to be reached in either is passé.

    Let us all understand this: The IRGC does not go rogue in the strategic arena. It is a firm part of the decision making establishment. The Islamic Republic isn’t a street gang or a militant group. It’s an authoritarian state with an ordered and fixed strategic process.
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  8. Jun 11

    And just to make clear, I’m concerned with the phenomenon, and not this particular case. I don’t know much about Ambassador Silliman, and he didn’t stand out to me as particularly objectionable in Baghdad compared to some others (looking at you, Brett). Still, not a good look.

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  9. Jun 11

    And the loop that feeds into this blatant manifestation is that the specialized bureaucracy is becoming more and more aware of its irrelevance. Very similar to how many Brits turned from the service of empire to becoming some rando emir’s hired help.

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  10. Jun 11

    Of course, this has been happening for a long time, taking many forms (lobbyists, corporate boards, academic chairs, etc). But what’s different is that it is all a bit more blatant these days, especially with the proliferation of advocacy shops masquerading as ‘institutes’.

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  11. Jun 11

    One possible consequence, facets of which we are seeing already, is that the decision maker will increasing disregard the consensus reached by the specialized bureaucracy. It may be a good thing come to think of it.

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  12. Jun 11

    How is a decision-maker in Washington supposed to trust the assessments made by a MENA-specialized diplomatic corps if the latter anticipates retiring on the Gulfie dime? The British diplomatic/intel/mil Gulfie syndrome is increasingly becoming normalized in DC. Consequences?

    I am thrilled to be taking over as President of
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  13. Jun 6

    Compare Iran’s co-option game in Iraq to the flotsam that DC’s net brings in...Also some Israelis have been recommending this guy to their American counterparts recently, revealing that they too are missing the mark, probably in other places too.

    reported ex CIA asset, along with his brother, back in the day, per
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  14. Jun 3

    And that sloppiness may have extended to an operational blind spot concerning Nader’s relationship with the Iranians, an avenue that has not been amply researched.

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  15. Jun 3

    Still a lot unknown about his story. But his relationship to Muhammad Bin Zayed should have been front and center in the NYTimes profile on the latter a couple of days ago. Nader reveals much about Bin Zayed such as lack of judgement, lack of vetting, and just general sloppiness.

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  16. Jun 3

    George Nader is back in the news, facing a long jail sentence for child pornography. One tidbit I didn’t know was that he was awarded US citizen *after* his first conviction for the same crime. Who were those “powerful people” who interceded on his behalf?

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  17. Jun 2

    This is from the NYTimes profile on Muhammad Bin Zayid today. It implies that there was indirect compensation. Okay, a step in the right direction but I assume there’s more, also the nature of Mattis’ consultation wasn’t broached, even though the ‘amphibious’ idea was mentioned.

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  18. May 29

    Irrespective of all that, what is immovably ‘real’ is that neither the current leadership in DC nor in Tehran put much credence in Iraq’s leaders. In Iran’s case they know the ‘origin story’, and in America’s they just don’t care. The folks in Baghdad sense this, hence the panic.

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  19. May 29

    This is a fundamentally flawed reading of the state of play. I don’t hold the author liable, because circumstances preceding his foray into Iraq ‘gamed’ a deep misunderstanding of Iraqi politics in a post-2003 analytical bubble.

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  20. May 21

    Gen. Mattis’ relationship/work with the UAE authorities during his retirement years wasn’t explored amply in the US press. They left it at “pro bono consultation”. That conflicts with other interesting things said, mostly by the Emiratis themselves.

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  21. May 20

    Update: Press reports have it that Ameri has resigned from this task.

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