Dana Nawzar

2- Erdogan’s success wasn’t only electoral. As a man of a vision which opposed the Turkish state ideology, his fights were existential. From an elected mayor banned from politics for endangering the secular nature of Turkis state, he is today the Turkish state

3- Erdogan has neutralised the existential threats against him. But the numerous electoral battles that has to fight are taking a toll on him. Erdogan’s changing system to presidency was an attempt to get some calm, but he isn’t getting it.

4- Turkey is still a majoritarian democracy. Despite Erdogan’s strong grip on power, his margins of victory against the opposition are very small. Now that the opposition has united against him, their chance of winning isn’t as slim as it used to be.

5- But Erdogan isn’t a beurocrat prime minister of a Scandinavian country. Erdogan’s winning or losing an election has far greater regional and global consequences. Erdogan can’t afford the uncertainty that surrounds his rule each time an election approaches

6- Erdogan is an important power bloc in the Middle East. He has allies and foes in the region. He has taken clear positions on several key regional crisis In contrast, the only thing his opposition cares about is defeating him. They have no grand plan for Turkey’s regional role

7- The mayoral elections aren’t technically important but they have huge simbolic value. The loss in Istanbul was a huge symbolic setback. But it also rings the danger that the opposition camp might have finally found the magical key to defeating Erdogan.

8- Erdogan is the most powerful man in Turkey but he is vulnerable. He has defeated a system but hasn’t created a new one. Any moment he loses an election or disappears from the scene for any reason, all his achievements & legacy is in geoprady

9- Erdogan has to find a way to make sure he and his ‘state ideology’ is election-proof. Because at the moment, there is no one in the AK Party or among its former leaders who can replace Erdogan & continue his legacy. There is no one who also can win every election.

10- Erdogan has proved critics or wishful thinkers wrong time after time. He has won critical elections against regional and international will. But he and his allies in the region can’t afford the continued uncertainty that is always in the background

11- Khomeini in Iran realised this in the early days of the revolution. He got rid of his rivals one by one and then created a system. Erdogan is good at defeating his rivals, he has weakened establishment but the system is pretty much the same.

12- Time is running out for Erdogan. Not only he is a mortal human, the amount of external and internal threats added to possible election defeats could end his reign any moment. Time has come for him to think beyond the next election

13- The system created by Ataturk is pretty much the same despite the many bruises it has gotten. For the sake of simplicity, there are 2 visions for Turkey: Erdogan’s & Ataurk. While Ataturk’s is the system, Erdogan’s is still the anomaly.