BurakKadercan
@BurakKadercan
Associate Prof of Strategy & Policy @NavalWarCollege PhD @UChicago ex-@FletcherSchool, All views personal rt no endorsement http://usnwc.academia.edu/BKadercan
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Pre-copy-edit version of “Territorial Logic of
#ISIS.” How can we conceptualize ISIS’ territoriality; How has territoriality affected ISIS’ strategy? Plus: some thoughts on future of ISIS. Pardon the typos, link to the gated version in the sub-tweet. 1/2https://www.academia.edu/38639268/Territorial_Logic_of_the_Islamic_State_An_Interdisciplinary_Approach …Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo - BurakKadercan Retweeted
Kolay: Sahte gündem yaratmak. AKP 17 senedir aynı taktiği kullanıyor, 5 aşamalı: 1) Sekülerleri gerecek açıklama 2) Sekülerler aşırı tepki verir 3) AKP kendi tabanına “işte bakın, bunlar değerlerimize karşı” der 4) Gündem bulanır 5) Sahte gündem tartışması da 2 güne unutulurhttps://twitter.com/canitti/status/1136365181796270080 …
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“İmamoğlu'nun kazanmak için kararsızları da yanına çekmesi gerekiyor.” Tamam da seçim Türkiye genelinde değil ki, adam zaten İstanbul’u kazandı.https://twitter.com/nonurkuru/status/1136359893299073025 …
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Son zamanlarda gördüğüm en ince ayar...pic.twitter.com/a37VlgmYTy
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AKP medyası neden İmamoğlu hakkında “Pontus Rum” söylemi kovalıyor? 1) Oy almak için değil, oy kaybetmemek için. İmamoğlu’nun muhafazakar kesimde bir albenisi var, mide bulandırmaya çalışıyorlar 2) AKP’nin İnsan Kaynakları Sorunu: elde kalan malzemenin kapasitesi bu kadar 1/2
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My favorite time of the year, when TR politics heats up, and folks who barely “get” TR not only produce “expert” analysis, but also offer “strategic advice” to local actors. Black Sea rallying is practically strategic genius, not a mistake. Allow me to help out in subtweet 1/2https://twitter.com/cequirk/status/1136356156509757440 …
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All this may appear complicated to folks uninitiated in ways of TR political discourse. But few folks from Turkey, or those who actually get TR, would find anything I wrote new or surprising. All this is common knowledge. That being said, venerable Turkey experts: You’re welcome!pic.twitter.com/DsLlWpc1jz
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Not only this “urban legend” is blatantly racist, folks in Black Sea region, who tend to be very nationalistic, abhor it to their guts. Simply: AKP messed up big time by offending a region just to spite
#Ekremİmamoğlu, and now he’s giving them a run for their money. 10/11pic.twitter.com/olCMOhzt6L Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Turkey is a land of half-cooked urban legends &
#ConspiracyTheoryJunkies. One such legend: simply because Black Sea region hosted Greek/Byzantine cities *hundreds of years ago*, folks who live there might have secretly stayed Christians and loyal to the greater Greek cause! 9/npic.twitter.com/nM6tBY663H Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Of course, puzzle *for the uninitiated* in the ways of Turkish political discourse: why would anyone claim folks from Black Sea region to be crypto-Greeks/Christians who intend to act against Turkey’s national interests? Super-easy, barely an inconvenience... 8/npic.twitter.com/SaIkXrtWUg
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Given this background, it would be foolish for
#Ekremİmamoğlu *not to* visit & rally in his hometown and the region. He’s making sure 1) he’s showing he’s not intimidated by AKP slurs; 2) to use same slurs to gain support from folks *from* region who will vote in Istanbul. 7/nShow this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Herein lies the irony: Not only AKP is very strong @ Black Sea region, folks there also tend to be very nationalist. AKP, just to discredit CHP candidate for Istanbul, directly offended them in *so many* ways. CHP candidate İmamoğlu is simply turning AKP’s attack on its head 6/npic.twitter.com/Mn9mQ9QvCW
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Why AKP trying to undermine CHP candidate for Istanbul by claiming that he’s a crypto-Greek/Christian agent is a big mistake? Doing so, AKP inadvertently offended an entire region by implying that they might be crypto-Greek/Christians too. There is an irony there, a big one. 5/npic.twitter.com/0Ffl4zJGwr
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CHP candidate for Istanbul
#Ekremİmamoğlu’s visit to the Black Sea region is a massive strategic blow to AKP. Why? AKP just tried to undermine Imamoglu by implying he is in fact a crypto-Greek/Christian, simply because he is from Black Sea region. Big, big, mistake. How so? 4/npic.twitter.com/e9NjsErB2z Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
First, the “underlying” causes: - CHP candidate for Istanbul is from the region - It is
#Eid
and an extended holiday, a period when people tend to visit their hometowns - A good chunk of Istanbul voters are originally from the region Next: “immediate causes” & strategy... 3/npic.twitter.com/oX6FjPIu6x Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Why is CHP candidate for İstanbul,
#Ekremİmamoğlu, is running a “rally tour” in Black Sea region including but not limited to the city of#Trabzon, even though the elections are for Istanbul? May seem like puzzle, but explaining is super-easy, barely an inconvenience... 2/npic.twitter.com/36hgQjKw1U Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
This interaction sums up the rationale for why I occasionally launch(ed) constructive criticism against the venerable Turkey experts. Two top experts with ears in high places sincerely fail to figure out a very obvious dynamic. Allow me to respectfully help them out... 1/npic.twitter.com/f8NxGLDL3B
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Hayır, geldik gidiyoruz, dilimizde tüy bitti, “orantısız zeka”larıyla sabah akşam övünen muhalif tayfa hala aynı kafada. Hadi ilk 5-10 yılda anlamadınız, hadi Gezi’den sonra da uyanmadınız, ama sene oldu 2019, AKP İstanbul’u kaybetmiş panik atak yaşıyor, nasıl derin bir uyku bu?
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Taktik kesinlikle şaşmadan hedefi vuruyor. Şimdi “Şeker Bayramı’ma dokunma” temalı, bol şeker görselli, şakalı komikli “boş kampanyalar” başlar. Sun Tzu “rakibe değil rakibin stratejisine saldırın” der, bu durumu görse büyük ihtimal “Yav he he deyin geçin” tavsiyesini verirdi...
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Taktiğin en ilginç kısmı: sahte gündemin içeriğinin sekülerlerin hayatında bir karşılığı yok: - Arınç “kadınlar gülmesin,” Diyanet “Şeker Bayramı demeyelim” dediği zaman yasal bir bağlayıcılık yok - Sekülerler zaten hayatlarını Arınçmış, Diyanetmiş vesaireyi dinleyip yaşamıyor
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