Ömer Özkizilcik

Ortadoğu'daki prenslerin saltanatını anlatan ve bölgedeki güç mücadelesinin yansımalarını ele alan birçok yazıların Türkçe'ye tercüme edildiği Ortadoğu Günlüğü bloğunu bulunmaktadır. @ztkor'ın bloğu birçok seçme makelelerin tercümesi i içeriyor: http://ortadogugunlugu.blogspot.com/?m=1 

BAE'nin izlediği politikaları iyi analiz etmek gerekiyor. Neredeyse her konuda Türkiye'ye karşı hamleler atan BAE, FETÖcü darbe girişimine de yardım etti Türkiye'de BAE çalışmaların artması gerekiyor Geçen seneki yazım BAE & TR arasındaki rekabe dair https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dunyabulteni.net/haber/amp/425409 …

Thanks @ZeinakhodrAljaz for the good interview!

"To avoid a humanitarian tragedy, an end to the spiral of violence is crucial. R attempts to add pressure & TR retaliation to increase costs may recede if the two sides can agree on a new de-escalation agreement. Otherwise, the escalation in Idlib may evolve into an int crisis.

"Depending on if the Russians will go further to pressure Turkey, the situation in Idlib might escalate beyond Syria as Turkey has shown that it won’t back down in the region to prevent a new humanitarian disaster."

"The message given by Ankara to Moscow has been clear; Russia may have the air superiority but pressuring Turkey in Idlib might be very costly. The Ghab plains are the weakest point of the rebel defence line."

"On May 21, the National Liberation Front and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham started a counteroffensive at night recapturing Kafr Nabudah. These operations lasted the entire night and indicated that rebels in Idlib could operate and capture a town using night vision and thermal cameras."

"With the start of the operation, the Russian hand behind it became undeniable as Iranian-backed militias were wholly excluded. After initial gains, the Syrian opposition managed to halt the advance by sending reinforcements to the frontlines & getting supplies including ATGMs."

"At the beginning of the New Year, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham disrupted the Sochi memorandum by going after the Turkish-backed Syrian opposition. During the attack of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the National Front for Liberation proved incapable of acting together against extremists."

"The regime has bombed Idlib to prevent a real ceasefire emerging & because it wants to retake Idlib entirely, in line with its policy of retaking every inch of Syria. This is part of a broader strategy in which the regime disrupts the agreement, as it has stymied its ambitions."

"Despite the Sochi agreement, two actors in Syria were involved and succeeded in sabotaging it. The Assad regime and groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, formerly affiliated with Al Qaeda, have taken steps to undermine the implementation process."

"To Moscow’s surprise, Ankara has decided to respond instead of backing down in an attempt to remind Russia how costly any unilateral military action in Idlib could be."

"The current military operation by the Assad regime with clear Russian backing is an attempt to pressure Turkey to enforce the Sochi memorandum signed by both sides, while the Syrian regime and its backers continue to violate the agreement"