Keyboard shortcuts are available for common actions and site navigation.
You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more
Some Turkey data > Things are not alright at the consumption front as weekly transactions with credit/debt cards disappoint. 13-week cumulative expenditures is only up 12% yoy, way below the annual inflation rate.pic.twitter.com/rifs0FbxVJ
> and eyes could be on the asset quality of banking assets in form of the small and medium size enterprise loans. NPL ratio for lira-denominated loans are on the rise, close post-2008 peak. Oddly enough, peaks are seen in the year following recession where we are yet to be at.pic.twitter.com/2Bojvye7Ap
> businesses' demand/banks' appetite for new loan deals seem to be weak this quarter, nevertheless it most probably saved the first one of the year, and still there's good chance that volume growth would be stronger in the weeks to come that it has been lately.pic.twitter.com/zWsG1m9eNJ
> general government primary spending, which grew by double digits in Q1 2019 when adjusted for inflation, is likely to be weaker this quarter, and essentially less supportive for economic activity but will bolster up the financial stability as well as lira.
> as part of the rebalancing regime, we see imports declining across the board, but to sustain a healthy growth path Turkey needs to import capital goods. This seems like an area where the support is needed.pic.twitter.com/VFSjAlwJXv
> and finally an interesting chart. Turkey's state-owned banks have increasingly involved in derivatives. Local regulations force banks to strictly limit their any open position so not fair to run speculations here, but derivatives are naturally speculative.pic.twitter.com/8PmkCmxJRw
> after some data analysis, it doesn't look promising enough to draw a rosy picture but it's also not all gloom and doom. Many dynamics to help Turkey may emerge. Emphasis should be on as to how to avoid a prolonged sub par growth period rather than the recession.
> re-opened talks with Syria and extended deescalation zones, if materialize further, would be very helpful particularly in credit markets, and the sovereign rating of course. That said, news flow around the central bank reserves or political lira trading remain as negatives.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
