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It'd been widely accepted that the Russian military had been open to launching this op (at least to the M4) for a while but that stability prevailed as Putin prioritized relationship w/ Turkey due to higher potential strategic upside (w/ Damascus seen as spent asset).https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/status/1126406656286515200 …
The current dynamics leave open possibility that current offensive "merely" implementation of a widely discussed side deal centred on Aleppo (M4 for Tell Rifaat access). Alternate, and more dangerous, possibility that Astana may be coming apart.
Interestingly, most Western and regional diplomats you meet have their own theory of how and why Sochi "worked", how and why it would fail, and how to protect it. Few willing to countenance scary notion that this has mostly been "movement to contact".
E.g. in a policy exercise last summer involving Russian, Turkish, American and European teams playing thru Idlib escalation scenario, Astana parties were confident in stability of deal (albeit Turks less so than Russians). Yet one exog shock quickly unravelled Syria diplomacy.
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