Nate SilverVerified account

@NateSilver538

Editor-in-Chief, . Author, The Signal and the Noise (). Sports/politics/food geek.

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fivethirtyeight.com
Joined August 2008
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  1. 2 hours ago

    H e ' s r u n n i n g

    Senator will join us tomorrow to talk about his future plans.
    44 replies 20 retweets 271 likes
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  2. Retweeted
    2 hours ago

    Mueller’s letter puts Barr in the hot seat.

    10 replies 17 retweets 124 likes
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  3. Retweeted
    3 hours ago

    BREAKING: Per a congressional source, the House Judiciary Committee has been notified by the DOJ that Attorney General Barr is NOT coming to testify tomorrow. DOJ has told the committee to expect a letter officially stating that shortly, according to my source.

    1,265 replies 3,006 retweets 4,740 likes
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  4. 3 hours ago

    241 replies 336 retweets 6,528 likes
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  5. 6 hours ago

    Mueller*

    21 replies 8 retweets 276 likes
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  6. 6 hours ago

    If I were a presidential candidate on Judiciary I'd put a shitload of effort into thinking through my questions of Barr and other people on Russia/Muller. Just think there's a high political ROI there. Harris seems to have gotten the memo; not sure about the others.

    138 replies 255 retweets 2,720 likes
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  7. 9 hours ago

    Which Democrat who has no chance might actually have a chance?

    31 replies 6 retweets 54 likes
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  8. Retweeted
    9 hours ago

    What gets lost in all of the Mueller Report takes is a fundamental paradox of the special counsel’s role: He can investigate potential criminal wrongdoing by a sitting president, but it’s nearly impossible to charge him:

    8 replies 66 retweets 184 likes
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  9. Retweeted
    9 hours ago

    a very interesting Pelosi quote.

    This is a great, telling Nancy Pelosi story from :
    11 replies 62 retweets 335 likes
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  10. 9 hours ago

    You can say, "Bernie came close so polls were wrong!" But if you're forecasting just who wins the nomination, close *doesn't* count. If a candidate who polls at X wins Y% of the time, that doesn't mean she always wins in a cakewalk; Y% includes cases where she wins a squeaker.

    73 replies 31 retweets 421 likes
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  11. 10 hours ago

    Periodic reminder: the candidate who led the early polls won the Democratic nomination in 2016. And on the GOP side, while Trump didn't lead immediately after entering the race, he did within 5-6 weeks of his announcement, and held that lead and won his nomination too, of course.

    122 replies 74 retweets 555 likes
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  12. 10 hours ago

    This is well said. There's reasonably robust evidence that more moderate candidates are more "electable", other factors held equal (which they often aren't). There's not really much basis for the assumption that white men are more electable.

    People fall back on heuristics — which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Some heuristics (experience, perceived moderation) probably have some vague tie to electability. The problem is that Dem voters rn seem to prioritize one heuristic (white male) over all others.
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    43 replies 26 retweets 190 likes
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  13. Retweeted
    10 hours ago

    Lindsay Graham says that Mueller took a lot of time with his investigation. Actually, Mueller's investigation was one of the shortest in the history of modern special prosecutors

    12 replies 90 retweets 293 likes
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  14. 21 hours ago

    Not sure if it's a coincidence, but Warren's mini-surge in the polls comes after a period where she spoke with more clarity about impeachment than other Democrats, and tonight's developments are liable to increase the salience of that issue.

    232 replies 1,162 retweets 8,085 likes
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  15. Retweeted
    23 hours ago

    Sanders should worry less about catching Biden right now and more on falling behind Warren (which he already did in one national poll today).

    NEW: Bernie, eager to consolidate the left, wants voters to focus on Biden’s record Biden, eager to consolidate the Dem middle, is wrapping himself in…
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    91 replies 244 retweets 1,670 likes
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  16. 23 hours ago

    Feel like the conventional wisdom is lagging the polls. Today's data doesn't suggest a Bernie vs. Biden standoff so much as Biden as a flawed but formidable-enough frontrunner from the Obama-Clinton wing of the party, and 4-6 alternative visions with a decent shot to beat him.

    NEW: Bernie, eager to consolidate the left, wants voters to focus on Biden’s record Biden, eager to consolidate the Dem middle, is wrapping himself in…
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    61 replies 59 retweets 446 likes
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  17. Apr 30

    Did you read the whole WaPo story? Nothing in the Barr memo may have been literally inaccurate -- he didn't make anything up whole cloth -- but Mueller's letter is strongly worded and makes clear that it misled the public thru lies of omission and a failure to provide context.

    We've read the Mueller report. We know what it says. It obliterates the conspiracy theories. And Mueller said Barr's letter *wasn't misleading*, just that media coverage overread it. But this is the 3-year-history of this story: one-day media hysteria on Twitter that goes nowhere …
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    326 replies 1,043 retweets 6,574 likes
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  18. Apr 30

    I can't find any high-quality polling on how the public would feel about Barr impeachment. But here's what the public thought about his overall handling of the Mueller Report before tonight. Probably these numbers will worsen.

    44 replies 61 retweets 286 likes
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  19. Retweeted
    Apr 30

    lmfao

    68 replies 515 retweets 2,942 likes
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  20. Retweeted
    Apr 30

    Wow: Mueller tells Barr that his depiction of his findings failed to capture “context, nature, and substance” of the special counsel probe. Developing —>

    356 replies 1,218 retweets 3,116 likes
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