Daniele Raineri

I think Al Baghdadi took this risky step out of necessity. Too many dissenting voices within the Islamic State, contesting his leadership since a while - and then the loss of territory

Al Baghdadi now accepting a risk he accepted only once when the Islamic State was in control of wide swaths of territoryhttps://twitter.com/danieleraineri/status/1122510020447539203 …

Now we know a lot more about * how * they move him from one place to anotherhttps://twitter.com/DanieleRaineri/status/1122896753685086209 …

Abu Bakr al Baghdadi speaking in a video – the second since the one recorded in Mosul in July 2014

But again, this is just a guessing game. Could be a release planned and produced months ago.

If the Islamic State network in Sri Lanka recorded footage of the massacres from outside the targets, al Furqan would be the right media branch

Could include a message by top figures like al Muhajir or al Baghdadi, but the current situation after Baghouz is peak vulnerability for leaders. Producing new stuff with them means compromising the bubble of security in which they are surviving

The latest video released by al Furqan was about the structure of the Caliphate – in mid July 2016, almost three years ago. We can merely speculate about this imminent release

This is rare: Islamic State announcing a * video * release by al Furqan – the oldest and most important media house of the Islamic State. All the recent releases by al Furqan were audio messages

Maybe they got the same set of instructions – the two groups of suicide attackers involved in two different attacks on the same day in Saudi Arabia and in Sri Lankahttps://twitter.com/colebunzel/status/1120716075824492544 …

I think we are not connecting the failed attack of the Islamic State in Saudi Arabia and the attacks in Sri Lanka on the same day. Just imagine if the first one wasn't a total failure – as it was

That bayah video from Sri Lanka is not enough to justify the delay

I think a video of the suicide bombers – or even a video of the attacks – in Sri Lanka is the reason why the Islamic State is so slow in claiming the massacre

The picture of the suicide bombers released now by the Islamic State is different from the pics circulating yesterday – same set though. I don't think this is the stuff the central office was waiting for

This centralization could explain many things, for instance the homogeneity of their propaganda. Could also explain why the Islamic State is claiming the massacre in Colombo two days later. The central office was waiting for something

… but he is not posting directly that stuff. He is sending the pictures and the info abroad to a central media department of the Islamic State and probably there was a misunderstanding

Yesterday @imanlibya told me that the latest ambush of the Islamic State in Libya occurred north of Sabha. Their propaganda says “south of Sahba”, instead. What does it mean? Their guy taking the photos in Libya of course knows the correct location…