Current figures for deaths in Raqqa: Coalition confirmed: over 300 Amnesty verified: 641 Amnesty 'credible': 1600 Deaths in Mosul: 11,000 Deaths in Aleppo: 23,604
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Woo, @Amnesty have finally published their #StrikeTracker report into the liberation of Raqqa! I'll be disappearing down a research hole for the rest of the day. Hopefully I'll have some helpful takes this evening.
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"The United Nations would later declare it the most destroyed city in Syria, with an estimated 70% laid waste." I was really hoping that a through study of all the damaged buildings meant we could lay this obviously wrong figure to rest, but apparently not.
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A UN official who visited the city shortly after liberation made a gut estimate that "70-80%" of buildings were damaged. Amnesty and others seized on this and turned it into their famous "80% of the city is destroyed" line.
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"From the bombed-out bridges spanning the Euphrates to the largely demolished old city near the central stadium, no neighbourhood was spared." Photo: an unscathed neighbourhood in southwest Raqqa, photo taken early 2019pic.twitter.com/RDeZXqDoYk
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This is just the
@Airwars bit I'm reading at the moment, but it seems they're still going for shock value over actual credibility.Show this thread -
A brief note on the accuracy of coalition artillery fire, since that's going to come up a lot. The artillery guys were firmly under the impression that their fire was accurate enough that we should use it as cover for movement. The SDF guys rejected this, since there were times
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that buildings next to the target had been hit. So scope for screwups, but hardly semi-randomised bombardment of the type Daesh used.
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My first few weeks on the front involved being in the middle of a lot of artillery battles, which would generally last an hour or so. Judging by counting the number of shots from each barrage, Daesh would lose around 6-8 mortars in each engagement.
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I'm not going to do the maths now, but those are small, concealed targets. I think that tallies with the SDF's general impression that Coalition mortar fire was accurate, give or take a building either side.
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There's still no credible evidence of Daesh's mortar fire having ever hit an actual target.
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The Conclusion is pretty good, mind. They're calling for transparency and accountability, and for funds to help victims. I can fully get behind all of that.
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And finally, some juiciness! Here's their map of all the damaged buildings.pic.twitter.com/yfdkoJL89G
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Interesting that the Stadium is intact. It got messed up fairly badly, but only because Daesh burnt an armoury inside it. Does this mean they've omitted Daesh damage from this map, and if so, how have they made the distinction? Because the Striketracker wasn't.
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In the interests of transparency and accountability, that one in the middle was my unit. Plus a second airstrike on a carbomb headed for my unit.pic.twitter.com/4i9Xx6dYoo
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I'm baffled that we've finally reached a point where this isn't just bluster. "I challenge anyone to find a more precise air campaign in the history of warfare…The Coalition's goal is always for zero human casualties" - Lt General Stephen J. Townsend, Coalition commander
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Wow, the "360 Experiences" are kinda crass. And I'm saying that as a veteran. I think I see what they're trying to do, but it just feels really icky. Like they're taking actual human suffering and turning it into a multimedia product for the entertainment of western audiences.
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"Disproportionate or indiscriminate attacks are war crimes.Urban combat poses inherent challenges. These were exacerbated in Raqqa because IS used human shields, but the Coalition was well aware of these tactics long before the battle." And STILL the numbers are this low.
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Here's their map of recorded deaths, which is far sparser than the map of damaged buildings. Sadly the interactive bits aren't working well on this computer, so I've only been able to read one report.pic.twitter.com/o0yvuOIEIg
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Wow, and that's it. That's everything. No look at the data, at how any of these cases were verified. Just a lot of vague talk and a slightly broken website. There was a genuine opportunity here, and it's been allowed to sail right past.
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Wierdly, although Airwars are pushing this hard, Amnesty's main feed doesn't even mention it.
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Imagine my surprise that TRT will be covering this heavily.https://twitter.com/Sara__Firth/status/1121354829685764096 …
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Interesting looking up the twitter accounts some of the reports are sourced from. They've all been suspended so far, but I can still see people replying to or talking about them.https://twitter.com/YallaSouriya/status/975009078857601025 …
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Had to find out the long way, but it seems none of the reports sourced from twitter accounts have been tagged as Verified.
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Does anyone know how to make a computer count the number of red dots on this map? My current methods aren't accurate enough to establish whether there are in fact 11,000 of them.pic.twitter.com/ITcGAtJ8oD
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I'm trying to get a grip on that 11,000 buildings number, but struggling. So far all I've got is that it's how many new council homes are planned to be built in Southwark by 2043.
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"Southwark Council's plans to build an exact replica of the destroyed city of Raqqa have been met with bewilderment from all sides."
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Oh, it's also the number of UK pubs that closed in the last decade. Now there's a visualisation aid.
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Amnesty have finally tweeted about their report, five hours after it went live! Clearly they were just waiting for the afternoon traffic, rather than weirdly awkward about the whole thing.
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