Can Okar

The main claim is that completed ballots were incorrectly filed in the total results. For example, AKP actually got 200 votes on a ballot but this has been filled into the system as 0. The problem? All of the different CHP, AA and YSK overall results are similar.

CHP gets tallies from its own observers and matches them with the YSK feed all parties get. YSK explicitly stated the AA (state media) doesn’t use its data so we assume AA gets it from AKP observers or AA workers. YSK gets it from Ballot officials. All three show a CHP victory.

Anyone who has ever had a boring data entry job will know that if you fill out 31,000 individual sets of data, some will inevitably be entered wrong. However, for that to happen in three different systems to end with essentially the same result is impossible.

There is one condition under which three distinct data sets could end at the same results with exactly the same errors that could account for 30,000 votes: they were colluding in some way. So the question is, do AKP believe AA and YSK suddenly switched to CHP overnight?

In short, the data entry errors some AKP voices have pointed to are impossible as long as the three separate data sources we have (CHP, AA and YSK) ended at almost identical overall results. Any errors would equal themselves out over 9 million votes.

Another claim from the AKP is that spoiled ballots were actually AKP votes. Unfortunately for the AKP, the last few years has created an army of opposition election observers in Turkey who all know that claim is literally impossible.

Each ballot is run by a state-appointed official. They are joined by party representatives and together they spend the entire day with the votes, count them, agree on a total and deliver signed results both to YSK and the parties. AKP is represented in every ballot in Istanbul.

For any AKP readers who say, “But you opposition types always claimed fraud before”, here is a tweet from me before the Presidential elections. You will see that I am entirely consistent with what I wrote then because what I’m saying is true.https://twitter.com/canokar/status/1009832632409034753 …

A spoiled ballot is usually spoiled in one of three ways: a) left empty, b) stamped twice in two different party boxes or c) it’s ripped or marked to the point of destruction. All ballot observers agree on spoiled ballots and this election had fewer than previous ones.

So for the claim to stand up to scrutiny, perhaps several thousand AKP ballot observers AND state-appointed officials would have had to miss dozens of AKP votes and assigned them spoiled ballot status. The best electoral machine in Turkish history would have had to collapse.

For it to be true that over 30,000 spoiled ballots all in favour of only AKP, you would have to believe that 1000s of AKP people either went into a trance or were somehow all part of a massive conspiracy to defraud the AKP. All while spoiled ballots actually fell from 2014.

The other two claims are even easier to debunk. First one is that AKP won the majority of boroughs in both Istanbul and Ankara so couldn’t lose overall vote. I ask them to take my three 10TL bills and give me their one 100TL bill. Deal?

To be clearer, this attempt at falsifying a CHP wins makes a claim that a large number of sparsely-populated geographies should have more importance than fewer densely-populated areas. Only the US electoral college is so stupid that it would count its votes in that mad fashion.

The final AKP claim is that people voted for AKP or MHP down-ticket but the mayoral votes didn’t represent that. 1) Split-ticket voting is a democratic right and need. 2) Given all the observers, how would a cheat be achieved practically?

In short, AKP claim (1) on false entry is statistically impossible, AKP claim (2) is both statistically and systemically impossible and AKP claims (3) and (4) are just silly. All the recounts in the world won’t change this very simple fact.