Can Okar

The AKP may well assert political power to steamroller a decision through anyway but the claims they are making have no systemic, statistical, legal or moral authority. The whole world and the whole of Turkey will see that. Over to them to decide who they want to be.

In short, AKP claim (1) on false entry is statistically impossible, AKP claim (2) is both statistically and systemically impossible and AKP claims (3) and (4) are just silly. All the recounts in the world won’t change this very simple fact.

The final AKP claim is that people voted for AKP or MHP down-ticket but the mayoral votes didn’t represent that. 1) Split-ticket voting is a democratic right and need. 2) Given all the observers, how would a cheat be achieved practically?

To be clearer, this attempt at falsifying a CHP wins makes a claim that a large number of sparsely-populated geographies should have more importance than fewer densely-populated areas. Only the US electoral college is so stupid that it would count its votes in that mad fashion.

The other two claims are even easier to debunk. First one is that AKP won the majority of boroughs in both Istanbul and Ankara so couldn’t lose overall vote. I ask them to take my three 10TL bills and give me their one 100TL bill. Deal?

For it to be true that over 30,000 spoiled ballots all in favour of only AKP, you would have to believe that 1000s of AKP people either went into a trance or were somehow all part of a massive conspiracy to defraud the AKP. All while spoiled ballots actually fell from 2014.

So for the claim to stand up to scrutiny, perhaps several thousand AKP ballot observers AND state-appointed officials would have had to miss dozens of AKP votes and assigned them spoiled ballot status. The best electoral machine in Turkish history would have had to collapse.

A spoiled ballot is usually spoiled in one of three ways: a) left empty, b) stamped twice in two different party boxes or c) it’s ripped or marked to the point of destruction. All ballot observers agree on spoiled ballots and this election had fewer than previous ones.

For any AKP readers who say, “But you opposition types always claimed fraud before”, here is a tweet from me before the Presidential elections. You will see that I am entirely consistent with what I wrote then because what I’m saying is true.https://twitter.com/canokar/status/1009832632409034753 …

Each ballot is run by a state-appointed official. They are joined by party representatives and together they spend the entire day with the votes, count them, agree on a total and deliver signed results both to YSK and the parties. AKP is represented in every ballot in Istanbul.

Another claim from the AKP is that spoiled ballots were actually AKP votes. Unfortunately for the AKP, the last few years has created an army of opposition election observers in Turkey who all know that claim is literally impossible.

In short, the data entry errors some AKP voices have pointed to are impossible as long as the three separate data sources we have (CHP, AA and YSK) ended at almost identical overall results. Any errors would equal themselves out over 9 million votes.

There is one condition under which three distinct data sets could end at the same results with exactly the same errors that could account for 30,000 votes: they were colluding in some way. So the question is, do AKP believe AA and YSK suddenly switched to CHP overnight?

Anyone who has ever had a boring data entry job will know that if you fill out 31,000 individual sets of data, some will inevitably be entered wrong. However, for that to happen in three different systems to end with essentially the same result is impossible.

CHP gets tallies from its own observers and matches them with the YSK feed all parties get. YSK explicitly stated the AA (state media) doesn’t use its data so we assume AA gets it from AKP observers or AA workers. YSK gets it from Ballot officials. All three show a CHP victory.

The main claim is that completed ballots were incorrectly filed in the total results. For example, AKP actually got 200 votes on a ballot but this has been filled into the system as 0. The problem? All of the different CHP, AA and YSK overall results are similar.

Many AKP voices have been claiming Istanbul was somehow stolen at Sunday’s elections. The accusations are essentially four different claims and this short thread will establish how each of these claims is systemically, statistically or logically not valid. Let’s go.

Wayne from Chichester: “Honestly, I’d never really thought about Turkey before. I’ve got enough on my plate with Brexit and the shit English weather. But ever since I saw what happened in Box 2371 in Esenler, I’ve been absolutely furious. It’s a disgrace.”

I honestly don’t know who the audience is for this tweet. Do they think Wayne from Chichester is sitting there furiously refreshing the page to see how Ballot Box 2371 in Esenler went down?https://twitter.com/secimhileleritr/status/1113026566643179520 …

Oh hello Brexit. I see you saw Turkish elections had made me politically happy for a few fleeting moments and have decided to take a shit on that happiness. Can’t believe I’m seeing the day when the UK has become more politically dysfunctional than Turkey. Bravo lads.