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Debate over whether wishful-thinking analysts or journalists are inflating local election result to paint it as “beginning of end for Erdogan”. So here’s my take: it’s not, but it changes his image of invincibility &shows with right candidate in right place he can be beaten (1/4)
For years there was feeling there’s no alternative, with fractured, hopeless opposition. That’s changed. But AKP still won election and vote share is huge. And there are in theory no national polls now until 2023, so he’s safe, with support of media and all levers of power (2/4)
That said, they lost main cities and Erdogan’s “whoever wins Istanbul wins Turkey” motto will come back to haunt him. AKP is clearly losing large parts of its urban base & the more affluent, more dynamic half of Turkey is obviously against it (that trend looks set to build) (3/4)
And while government is pushing “no election till 2023” line, if party splits & Babacans, Güls, Davutoglus (latter two hate each other) rear their heads & try to form something new, 2023 date could end up earlier. So no, not beginning of end - but in many ways a watershed. (4/4)
agreed, although without wanting to go too far toward the opposite extreme, I remember people also saying Erdogan's aura of invincibility was shattered after the June 2015 elections as well
Indeed. But the country was a very different place back then. Being able to beat him in post-constitutional change Turkey is more meaningful.
good point
Does opposition control of major cities mean that future campaigns will be more balanced? To win significant prizes with almost zero MSM coverage was impressive. What would be possible with a (more) level playing field?
Zero impact on campaigns or media coverage. It was, and will continue to be, the David fighting the Goliath with all its media control and state power.
It might also change power configurations between different actors who implicitly and explicitly support the governing regime. Erdogan's power has become vulnerable as he became more dependent on the MHP (and other less invisible actors in support of MHP).
The fallacy in 1-4 is "the economy stupid, the economy..." Change may only emerge in the magnitude of the economic downturn. If there is a win the other day it is almost nothing to do with the democratic credentials of the opposing parties and will never be as it looks so far.
"it changes his image of invincibility &shows with right candidate in right place he can be beaten" -- this means the beginning of the end.
Beginning of the end to me it means he has already reached the peak and is now descending.
Exactly. "Beginning of the end" is something we can see in retrospect. If CHP fields a strong candidate and wins in 4.5 years, analysts will certainly point to these local elections as "the beginning of the end." That doesn't mean it's a definite though.
I am worried that he may become more agressive
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