+ Municipal control has been at the heart of political Islam's national success, allowing to build grassroots networks, deliver vote-winning services and, crucially distribute lucrative contracts and rent. +
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Massive symbolism in Turkey's local elections. The rise of the Islamists stared with their victories in Ankara and Istanbul 25 years ago. Last night, they lost both cities, as well as a number of major urban centres +
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+ Spectacular and deeply controversial public works, such as Istanbul's massive new airport or the 3rd Bosphorus bridge, weren't only used as symbols of Turkish-Islamic developmentalist chest-beating, but were also the engines of Turkey's stuttering economy. +
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+ So the loss of two of the biggest cash cows will be a major hit to Erdogan's govt, both politically and economically--which explains all the late night scramble to bury the results and present fmr PM and Erdogan right-hand-man Binali Yıldırım as de facto winner +
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+ the same tactics used in a very shady election in Ankara in 2015, in which AKP's Melih Gökçek (the main who first won the capital in 94) was declared winner over rival Mansur Yavaş after a late night govt intervention in the counting process. +
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+Since then both Gökçek & elected fmr Istanbul mayor Kadir Topbas fell out w/ & were removed by Erdogan. Meanwhile, Yavaş, who won Ankara "again" yesterday, and his Istanbul counterpart Ekrem İmamoğlu, learned crucial lessons re: pre- and post-election organising from 2014. +
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+ İmamoğlu's sleepless persistence and methodological monitoring of the process cornered the govt and pro-AKP media, which had already declared victory for Yıldırım and called it the night, and prevented Erdogan & co. to get away with murder. +
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+ Economic woes seem to have had an impact on the outcome, with the country's financial and industrial centres now rebelling against a suffocating govt running out of steam. The pattern solidifies the growing urban/rural divide that first emerged in the 2017 referendum. +
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+ It also confirms that while Erdogan has come to control the state apparatus and wields mighty powers, the inability to improve lives of his constituents and the decay of his once formidable party mechanism into a network of senile loyalists & opportunists are proving costly. +
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+Finally, it shows, much to our joy, that despite the thoroughly unfair & undemocratic playing field, there is still real competition in Turkey, and the country's democratic experience and institutions are proving resilient despite years of authoritarian onslaught. +
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+ Perhaps no clear sign of this than the resilience of the HDP voters, who did not only win back most of the mayorships seized from it by force, but also provided crucial support to opposition CHP-IYI coalition, despite the latter's anti-Kurdish nationalism. +
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+Even in prison, Selahattin Demirtaş continues to remain one of Turkey's most important and influential political actors. Imagine if he were free! Demirtaş is also a cautionary tale for what might befall rising opposition figures that challenge AKP's hegemony. +
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+ Flipside of Turkey's "competitive authoritarianism" is that it is ruled by a man willing to go astonishing lengths not to share power. Repeat elections of 2015 should be a warning to those who think the AKP will take last night's results lying down. Nasty times still ahead! //
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