Aykan ErdemirVerified account

#TurkishElections & the vote count are over, but the entire country is waiting to see whether #Erdoğan 1) Will refuse to concede defeat & try to rig the results, 2) Will first concede defeat & later remove opposition mayors from office & appoint trustees, 3) Lose with grace.

#Erdoğan was checkmated by a leader he allied with & another one he imprisoned. #MHP leader #Bahçeli shepherded Erdoğan to a narrative & an alliance scheme that allowed MHP to win #AKP municipalities. #Demirtaş directed #HDP voters to the opposition bloc, facilitating their wins.

#CHP has won 21 of #Turkey's 81 provinces, but those 21 account for 62.1% of Turkey's GDP. If #Bursa ends up as CHP's 22nd win, CHP mayors will be in charge of two thirds (66.2%) of Turkey's GDP. Economic powerhouses have deserted #Erdoğan, leaving him with economic backwaters.

#CHP wins 10 of #Turkey's top 20 cities in terms of their contribution to #GDP, including #Istanbul (1), #Ankara (2), #İzmir (3), #Antalya (6), #Adana (8), #Mersin (10), #Tekirdağ (12), #Hatay (14), #Muğla (19), #Eskişehir (20). #Bursa (4) could end up being the 11th #CHP win.

In his “victory” speech, #Erdoğan said that the #AKP won 16 of #Turkey's 30 metropolitan municipalities. This tally excludes both #Ankara and #Istanbul, and amounts to #Erdoğan conceding defeat in Turkey’s two biggest cities, with 15m and 5.5m inhabitants, respectively.

With #Ekremİmamoğlu's pending victory in #Istanbul, the main opposition #CHP is close to winning 21 of Turkey's 81 provinces, where almost half the population resides, i.e. 40 million of Turkey's 82 million citizens.

A tally of new cities (7) #CHP won in #TurkeyElections & their populations (~13 million): Swing from #AKP: Ankara (5.50m), Antalya (2.42m), Bolu (0.31m), Kırşehir (0.24), Bilecik (0.22m), Artvin (0.17m) Swing from #MHP: Adana (2.22m), Mersin (1.81m) Istanbul (15m) is a toss up!

At the level of subprovincial (ilçe) municipalities, the big winners are #CHP w/ 30+ additional wins & #İYİ w/ ~20 wins. #AKP is the big loser, ironically losing not only to the oppo, but also to its ultranationalist partner #MHP, which might end up w/ 40+ wins. #TurkeyElections

Of #Turkey's 12 largest cities, the opposition is winning at least 7: #Ankara, #İzmir, #Adana, #Antalya, #Mersin, #Eskişehir, & #Diyarbakır. The largest city #Istanbul is a toss-up! #Bursa, too, is too close to call. AKP is losing Turkey's economic power houses. #TurkeyElections

Preliminary prediction on #TurkeyElections: AKP cadres have seen that #Erdoğan's strategy of framing the elections around the theme "existential threat" has backfired, and will start complaining of losing votes, municipalities, & spoils to their ultranationalist partner #MHP.