We will definitely cover this on the podcast with @JennyCafarella and @SSiminoff.
I agree that Jeffrey’s estimates are clearly exaggerated, although I think the numbers are very high. But that most of them will exit the scene is wishful thinking. The patterns in the battle-space don’t support that.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/1106542440054489090 …
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Both Sasha and Jennifer are the best.
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Using exaggeration to bring attention to a real problem is bad policy. I have been following and publicizing the scary consistency of IS attacks in Iraq despite the destruction of most major cities once controlled by IS. 15-20,000 effective operatives seems like wild speculation.
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The numbers are a classic confusion of intel and assumptions based on it; that there are ten thousand ISIS members or former fighters, ok. That they are all members of “sleeper cells”, is not possible to know, the nature of a sleeper cell is you don’t know about it until too late
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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