Soner CagaptayVerified account

2. Since 2014, Washington’s policy of working with the #YPG in #Syria to defeat ISIS (where U.S. cooperation with the YPG has helped the latter soar) has undermined U.S. policy regarding the #PKK in #Turkey (where Washington wants YPG-ally PKK’s wings clipped)...

3. The relationship between the PKK and YPG needs to be detailed: The #YPG was spun out of the PKK in 2003 in Syria. Until 2014, success of PKK, the "mother group," animated the YPG. Since 2014, though, U.S. cooperation with the YPG (to defeat ISIS) has inverted this relationship

4. In 2014-15, the #YPG captured large areas of #Syria, including Kobane city, declaring autonomy. During summer 2015, the #PKK broke its ceasefire with Ankara, launching a war, and attempting to take over Turkish cities --to import the YPG's"Kobane Model" from Syria into Turkey

4. Needless to say, the PKK's vision to import the "Kobane Model" into #Turkey has failed, but the #YPG's gains in #Syria still animate the #PKK. The latter controls a third of Syria's territory and half of its oil reserves, and could, until recently, rely on full U.S. support

5. Enter @realDonaldTrump! With his decision to withdraw from #Syria, Trump has realigned the PKK-YPG relationship: the latter, which cannot rely on full U.S. support, has lost its ability to animate the #PKK. The PKK should now want peace with Ankara --first time since 2015

6. Working with Ankara, Washington now has an opportunity to fully invert the PKK-YPG relationship to its original form (in which the #PKK animates the YPG and not the other way around), starting with a "safe zone" along Turkish-Syrian border to push the #YPG away from #Turkey

7. The PKK will come to peace table with Turkey ONLY if the YPG is weak in #Syria, AND #Turkey will get along the Syrian Kurds, whom the #YPG militarily dominates, ONLY if Ankara is in peace talks with the #PKK. It starts with weakening the YPG. There is no other way around!