The total of 3,733,591 people tallied by REACH's Key Informers in the area consist of 2,453,640 residents and 1,279,951 Internally Displaced People from Idlib and across Syria.
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#Map showing where #Idlib's 3.7mil civilians live, and the location of Displaced people throughout the pocket. According to data from @REACH_info. HD - http://www.mediafire.com/convkey/4cba/rmfixbxbsq50pj4zg.jpg …pic.twitter.com/qsCJZTzVAr
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It is also worth noting that REACH's isn't a perfect database, it is just the best and most detailed we have. UNOCHA put the population of Idlib at 2.6mil in Jan, Mercy Corps at 2.9mil in May. REACH works on exaggerated baseline figures, so the proper guess is probs 2.6-3.1mil
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In addition, the data shows that throughout the pocket the majority (~56%) of those 3.7mil civilians are female. This proves incorrect those people who claim that jihadists have made the province a militarised wasteland without civilians and legitimises its targeting.pic.twitter.com/SDiPF42X6S
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Excuse the highly-gendered colour-scheme it just seemed the most efficient way to show the data.
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#Map of the Greater Idlib Pocket showing Population Density Changes since 2011, using@WorldPopProject and@REACH_info data. NOTE: This method does NOT show dedicated IDP camps which are considerable in the province, but only host communities.pic.twitter.com/AYEcbqsG0DShow this thread -
This map has adjusted REACH's data so that across the 336 settlements with sufficient data the median change is 0%. This is mostly to keep the colour-scheme consistent across maps, but also in someway compensate for REACH's slightly-too-high baseline figures. The map overcorrects
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I wonder if you know why the numbers you quote are so different from what is suggested here by
@EHSANI22?https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/1041677009791995906 … -
Because George spend's 90% of his time lobbying for the Assad-regime to businessmen in America and Europe, whereas REACH gets its information from scores, if not hundreds, of key informants - Local councils, Teachers, Aid Groups, Civil Society ect - actually in the communities.
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Also tbf REACH's estimates are a bit on the high end, but certainly the most detailed estimate we have. Personally I would put the count of civs in Idlib-pocket as ~2.8-3.3mil including IDPs
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You should also consider all data provided by the groups you prefer (and mentioned above) were ALWAYS 50 if not 300% too high. We saw that in Aleppo Ghouta and Daraa... fe: 350k reported in Daraa - and about 60k refugees were actually counted.
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That was at the back of my mind, along with some caution about almost anything anyone says.
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I have learned in that conflict: If 2 or more parties give numbers about civilians refugees or soldiers... add these numbers and divide it by the no of claimers... Pro Gov. say 1,2 mil (some say 1.8) - pro op claim 3.6... do your math... It worked in Aleppo Ghouta and elsewhere.
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Most of them have kicked out the Kurds in Afrin and no one talks about them because they are not Arabs
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Theres not 3.7 million civilians,still whatever floats your boat ,have you counted ?.
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