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Pompeo’s Egypt speech is a perfect fit for this piece I wrote recently: The winds are blowing in one direction in the region — autocrats see victory within reach, and that makes them erratic, blind & uncompromising.https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/where-us-middle-east/574747/ …
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Not many details about ISIS profiles in Sinai, but al-Naba has a detailed one about Abdulmalik al-Dagastani. Born into an atheist family, converted to Islam five years ago, made it to Egypt/Sinai after some years of attempts, had a short career there.pic.twitter.com/8oLo9BTHBT
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Since 2016, ironically, ISIS foreign affiliates started to look more like ISIS than move away from it. The reason is that ISIS anticipated how important it was to streamline their operations & tighten its control over them. Sinai, Yemen & Khorassan were noticeably changing in ‘16
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If we know one thing about ISIS, it’s its ability to organize & grow when it’s fighting against a fellow jihadi group. ISIS is the ideology most equipped to organize against fellow jihadis than those jihadis could organize is against it.
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I bet ISIS will turn a lot of its energy & focus to boost its presence in Afghanistan, a massive opportunity for it. The Taliban talks is an opening, but not just that. ISIS will benefit less from disillusioned Taliban members than from the Taliban’s likely expansion there...
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In practice, being more ambitious about these countries means evolving from sporadic terror attacks in countries like Saudi Arabia & Turkey to building cells for sustained insurgency. A pattern it followed in Iraq & then in Syria.
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Why interesting? ISIS, since late 2016, started to be more realistic about its attacks against the West but *more* ambitious about attacking major countries in the region. Saudi Arabia will be a big focus, as will Egypt, Turkey and Afghanistan. A couple of predicted scenarios:
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ISIS is essentially advising its cells in Saudi Arabia not to make uncalculated moves there and instead “to learn the lessons of their brethren in Syria, Iraq and other wilayat of the Islamic State.”pic.twitter.com/iDKE5F6bLr
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ISIS says MBS knows that he’ll benefit from some chaos as the West will come to his help if there is any extremist move there, so it warns its followers not to fall into the trap: “don’t be the fodder of a battle not yours. The [nature of] our fight is clear.” 2/pic.twitter.com/HvWR7MNwSr
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Interesting two-page article in ISIS’s weekly al-Naba on Mohammed bin Salman’s religious policies in Saudi Arabia. The conclusion especially.. 1/2pic.twitter.com/ZTN2mHzZZV
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The one article everyone should read at this point, with sobering ground truths, by
@azizkahmad: Undefeated, ISIS Is Back in Iraq https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2019/02/13/undefeated-isis-is-back-in-iraq/ … via@nybookspic.twitter.com/sEAgfEA9WaThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo - Hassan Hassan Retweeted
Exclusive in
@TheAtlantic this morning: Former acting FBI director Andrew McCabe on the bizarre things he saw and heard after Trump fired Comey https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/02/andrew-mccabe-fbi-book-excerpt-the-threat/582748/ …pic.twitter.com/2gI9uhjeTQThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Interesting point by
@aalodah: In September, al-Fouzan issued a fatwa urging the Saudi state to kill political dissidents who promote sedition against the ruler. A month later, Jamal Khashoggi was murdered. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/13/opinion/saudi-arabia-judiciary.html#click=https://t.co/Yyi4zM1SML … MBS told al-Fouzan: ”you’re like my father”pic.twitter.com/JHOgCIIyPdThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Wow, unusually bold remarks from an Egyptian MP against the pro-Sisi constitutional amendments, saying this makes governance in Egypt worse than it was before 2011 & closer to Medieval rule:pic.twitter.com/yQuuprvqrl
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Elliot Broidy told Trump that the UAE & Saudi Arabia were creating an all-Muslim counterterrorism force made up of 5,000 Arab soldiers to fight against the Taliban & ISIS in Afghanistan. Trump loved the idea.https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/elliott-broidy-donald-trump-swamp-793159/#utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=social_bar&utm_content=bottom_amp&utm_id=793159 …
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A bit ironic given that Saudi Arabia & the UAE imposed blockade in 2017 for terror financing: EU Blacklists Saudi Arabia in Fight Against Money-Laundering and Terror Financinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-13/saudi-arabia-panama-included-on-eu-list-of-high-risk-nations …
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Don't wait to RSVP! Our February 13 event features experts
@SusieOHayward,@hahellyer,@melsanousi1, and@pmandaville on how best to think about the relationship between#religion and preventing or countering violent#extremism. Reception to follow.#CVEhttp://ow.ly/eqKW30nBHZhThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
“The Scream, 1893 by Edvard Munch, reimagined for the Gulf. Artwork by https://www.instagram.com/bi9asso/ “ via
@SultanAlQassemipic.twitter.com/rNke4uIc3XThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
The global tide is turning against Mohammed bin Salmanhttps://www.ft.com/content/818b4dda-2ebb-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8?segmentid=acee4131-99c2-09d3-a635-873e61754ec6 …
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These details were given to
@AliAlleile -- who is the best -- and me.Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
After Raqqa, its members kept moving down the Euphrates river. By the time they were stranded in Baghuz, most of its members had apparently vanished.
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