Mark Bentley

@MarkABentley

Journalist/analyst. Ex-Turkey bureau chief and head of European investment news for Bloomberg. Retweets not endorsement

Joined April 2010
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  1. Feb 7

    The world is just like Turkey Local media reporting today that European growth is slumping and world food prices are surging. Sounds familiar

    1 reply 2 retweets 2 likes
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  2. Feb 6

    High inflation, bad democracy and the future: Turkey’s prospects | Ahval Nice piece by ⁦⁩ linking deterioration in democracy to economic woes. Post-election should be when govt is more transparent & cooperative about policy, she says

    1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
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  3. Feb 3

    Why is democracy so important with oil-rich nations we can’t control

    2 retweets 2 likes
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  4. Retweeted
    Feb 1

    BBC has learned that Turkish government is coming under renewed pressure to cease buying gold from Venezuela & Turkey is now considered "by far the biggest concern" of all countries engaging in the trade, partly due to suspicions some of it going to Iran, violating US sanctions.

    10 replies 223 retweets 194 likes
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  5. Retweeted
    Feb 1

    Osman Kavala: I am now a full 15 months in Silivri [prison] and I still have yet to be questioned by the prosecutor." [Kavala is well known for his work bringing reconciliation among peoples of Turkey (+Armenia) through arts+NGOs. He was arrested on vague charges on Oct 18 2017]

    Osman Kavala: “Silivri’de 15 ayım tamamlandı, hâlâ savcı tarafından sorgulanmadım” aracılığıyla
    1 reply 21 retweets 10 likes
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  6. Retweeted
    Jan 27

    The Turkish Lira is up 24% in real terms since Aug. 2018 (black). This rebound is more than sudden stop EMs (blue) typically see, but: (i) the Lira is still 24% down since end-2013 (even with the recent rebound); (ii) it is only moderately overvalued here (fair value $/TRY 5.50).

    4 replies 88 retweets 190 likes
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  7. Retweeted
    Jan 24

    Agreed. Balance sheet recession suggests L rather than V-shaped recovery.

    Consensus is rapidly turning more bearish on the depth of recession likely in Turkey. We have been saying 2 things: (i) countries with sudden stops like Turkey see peak-to-trough GDP declines of 10%; (ii) due to the huge 2017…
    5 replies 19 retweets 33 likes
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  8. Retweeted
    Jan 25

    The last time Turkey saw strong real money inflows was 2017, a year of Dollar weakness and healthy global risk appetite. We have been flagging how anemic the flow recovery to EM is, and Turkey is no exception. Even with all the outflows in 2018, there's very little inflow now.

    6 replies 62 retweets 74 likes
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  9. Retweeted
    Jan 22

    Using the example of Turkey, the Erdogan administration reached its peak on the economy front in the period 2007-2011 when it was arguably most liberal, helped by the EU accession anchor at that time.

    I think many of these regime have yet to deliver on the economy front and likely will be found wanting.
    2 replies 8 retweets 10 likes
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  10. Retweeted
    Jan 22

    I think many of these regime have yet to deliver on the economy front and likely will be found wanting.

    1 retweet 5 likes
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  11. Retweeted
    Jan 18

    “Fair” value for currencies are always fraught with difficulty. I always think people forget it’s a market with buyers and sellers, lots of moving parts.

    A year ago, many were saying Turkish Lira undervalued, when the credit boom & current account deficit said the opposite. I'm hearing similar undervaluation calls now. Yes, current account is in surplus, but that's the recession…
    2 replies 8 retweets 33 likes
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  12. Jan 18

    Then there is cost of bank restructuring - NPLs set to rise and less money available from banks for economic growth. Elections may be delaying govt's response to forex debt problems, which is bad for economy. Where is the capital injection? What might be required? We don't know

    1 retweet 3 likes
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  13. Jan 18

    Turkish tax cuts should continue to avoid contraction, group says Things look bleak beyond Turkey's local elections in March. Pressure may continue on government to keep financial help to the economy going The question is can they do it without IMF?

    1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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  14. Jan 17

    Turkish central bank helps credibility by keeping rates steady Economist joins others including Nomura's and in predicting that the central bank probably won't cut rates before March elections.

    5 retweets 4 likes
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  15. Jan 16

    Lira is performing strongly after central bank decided to hold rates +1.4% at 5.36/$ Consensus may be building that the CB will not cut ahead of elections, making the lira a safer investment than before

    2 likes
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  16. Jan 16

    Billion-dollar Turkish firms to meet with U.S. investors | Ahval Good news for Turkish firms and the country as a whole. Hopefully this is a sign of sound crisis management and better relations after the scare over Syria this week.

    4 retweets 5 likes
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  17. Retweeted
    Jan 16

    Turkey - CBRT rate decision later today. I cannot see them risking a cut in 24% benchmark rate. TRY still vulnerable, inflation high and likely sticky. CBRT dividend transfer of TRY37bn to government plenty of lamb to barrel this side of local elections.

    2 replies 11 retweets 29 likes
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  18. Retweeted
    Jan 14

    Trump is just unbalanced/unhinged....threatening to crash an ally’s economy is not the kind of thing allies do. Notable that in rolling out sanctions on Russia, US sanctions’ officials have gone out of their way to say they don’t want to crash the RU economy.

    BREAKING — Erdoğan and Trump had a phone call following Trump’s threatening tweets today against Turkey over Syrian Kurdish militia YPG Turkish readout says both leaders emphasised the importance of healthy…
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    3 replies 10 retweets 20 likes
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  19. Jan 14

    Plus this is not a good time to go head to head with Trump, who has serious political problems of his own at home.

    1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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  20. Jan 14

    Perhaps there's a deal on a Syria buffer zone behind the scenes, but otherwise Erdogan surely needs to tread very carefully. The currency crisis is still fresh in people's minds and confidence is far from restored

    1 reply 2 retweets 1 like
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