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Solid paper by @muratyesiltas and @OmerOzkizilcik on the intra-insurgent developments in #Idlib: the de facto fall of the province to extremists and the tussle between #Turkey and #Russia over how to deal with it. https://www.setav.org/en/analysis-interfactional-dynamics-and-the-future-of-idlib/ …pic.twitter.com/S8sNujvaa3
This is a an important point: it is very unlikely that #HTS is actually detached from Al-Qaeda in a manner that would satisfy Western security needs. More to the point, very few of the people who count in the West *believe* this has happened, which is a reality in itself.pic.twitter.com/iiWsu7IOsY
Tend to think the authors are right that (1) is "the most unlikely"; a full-scale (2) would be "catastrophic" but some more limited version is conceivable; all efforts toward (3) have visibly failed; and (4) is possible - obvious downsides, though in time perhaps opportunities.pic.twitter.com/XAd7Wy5AYC
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