Yury Barmin

Since a 5km buffer is too thin for Turkey as it doesn't solve the problem and a 32km safe zone is a no-go for Russia, a likely scenario here is Russia's preferred push-pull tactic: temporarily turning the heat up on the Kurds and putting them in a weak spot in talks with Assad

The PKK problem that Adana agreement solved in 1998 with its 5km buffer is of far bigger magnitude for Turkey today. YPG is not a guerilla warfare group of the 90s and possesses heavy weapons, meaning that a 5km buffer can be circumvented.

And don’t forget that Assad has an immense capacity to act as a spoiler. In the case of the northeast it is in his direct interest to prevent any Turkish control because once Turkish buffer is established Ankara will have zero interest to give it up

My guess is that Putin significantly suppressed Erdogan’s appetite in the northeast, but did not fully rule out a military op which, if it happens (contained, possibly air strikes, but not buffer) will force the Kurds to accept Assad’s rule

Paper claims that Putin agreed to a 5km buffer (under Adana agreement’s Annex 4) for Turkey but the principled position that Damascus should take over the border hasn’t changed, in fact it became even more relevant now that Turkey may establish control over entire northern border

I have a different sense having spoken to people in Moscow and Istanbul over the past few days. There are too many moving parts at the moment, the issue of Idlib is now linked to the issue of the northeast, massive civilian casualties in idlib are still the biggest problem

Citing sources in the government Russian media says that a Syrian army op in Idlib is a done deal. The paper says that tensions between Russian- and Iran-backed forces in Hama are indicative of changing conditions in the region ahead of the op https://www.kommersant.ru/amp/3867100?__twitter_impression=true …

A testament to how out of touch with reality all these global and regional geopolitical rivalries arehttps://twitter.com/antissa/status/1088426801343483904 …

*Adana

However, what Putin’s statements mean with regard to the northeast is that a Turkish buffer is unlikely. Instead the Syrian government (according to Adnan agreement joint Syr-Tur patrols are possible) forces are to solve the PKK problem

According to the Adana agreement a direct line was established between security agencies of Syria and Turkey. My guess is that what Putin is trying to do here is take steps towards normalization between Erdogan and Assad.

Most statements were vague but just one detail stands out: Putin said that the 1998 Adana agreement between Turkey and Syria is still valid, meaning that Turkish presence is not illegal. The agreement in question says that Syria will ban PKK and Ocalan

The Putin-Erdogan presser after the talks in Moscow was an interesting show: Putin reading out the UK/France/Germany letter to the UN asking not to authorize the Constitutional Committee is probably the main highlight. I wonder who leaked it to Moscow.

Significant developments yday with Israel openly bombing targets in Syria and destroying Syrian Pantsir S1 air defenses. More importantly, Pantsir is necessary to protect Syrian S-300 systems. A very subtle way of demonstrating that Assad's S-300 could be easily incapacitatedhttps://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/1087288402603585536 …

Events in the northeast served as a catalyst to what happens in Idlib. Without US pullout announcement Idlib would've been Russia's only leverage against Turkey, now there's bigger fish to fry. What's more Ankara seems ready to let Idlib fall if it secures interests in northeast

While all eyes are on northeast Syria, Idlib becomes an HTS ruled zone. What is striking is that there has been zero reaction from Russia to the gradual takeover of Idlib by HTS. Russian Min of Defense spoke to Turkish counterpart yday but didn't raise the issuehttps://twitter.com/aronlund/status/1083446750533296128 …

Erdogan’s NYT op-ed resulted in backlash both in the west&Russia. A military source I spoke to says Moscow is frustrated with Erdogan’s ambition to unilaterally set up a new force in the northeast. As per Russia, Damascus should take over and oversee military&civic administration

Recent news of the reopening of the UAE embassy in Damascus pale in comparison with this. Mamlouk’s visit to Riyadh makes sense if Saudi wants to break the link between Syria and Iran, but I’m afraid institutional ties between them are too deep and won’t be easy to dismantlehttps://twitter.com/jobahout/status/1082969964905140226 …