Sam Heller

And don’t forget that Assad has an immense capacity to act as a spoiler. In the case of the northeast it is in his direct interest to prevent any Turkish control because once Turkish buffer is established Ankara will have zero interest to give it up

My guess is that Putin significantly suppressed Erdogan’s appetite in the northeast, but did not fully rule out a military op which, if it happens (contained, possibly air strikes, but not buffer) will force the Kurds to accept Assad’s rule

Paper claims that Putin agreed to a 5km buffer (under Adana agreement’s Annex 4) for Turkey but the principled position that Damascus should take over the border hasn’t changed, in fact it became even more relevant now that Turkey may establish control over entire northern border

I have a different sense having spoken to people in Moscow and Istanbul over the past few days. There are too many moving parts at the moment, the issue of Idlib is now linked to the issue of the northeast, massive civilian casualties in idlib are still the biggest problem

Citing sources in the government Russian media says that a Syrian army op in Idlib is a done deal. The paper says that tensions between Russian- and Iran-backed forces in Hama are indicative of changing conditions in the region ahead of the op https://www.kommersant.ru/amp/3867100?__twitter_impression=true …

Then goes on to say that, according to Kommersant sources, there could be a deal: Damascus’s consent to a buffer zone in exchange for the gradual return of the rest of the country to the control of the Syrian government. The first "test case" would be Idlib.

The piece further suggests that Moscow would be willing to accept a buffer zone at Turkish-Syrian border in NE that is 5km deep (rather than the 32km Ankara wants).