Photo: El Confidencial retrieved
Here’s the thing about other countries recognizing Juan Guaidó. However much sense it makes politically, it is—how to put this delicately?—not the thing they teach you at Diplomat School.
The librito—standard diplomatic practice—is emphatic on this point. “Recognition” in international relations, is not a value judgment. It doesn’t imply approval, in any way. It doesn’t imply you accept the other side’s democratic legitimacy. “Recognition” is exactly what its name implies— it recognizes facts on the ground. Namely: that a given government exercises actual control over a given territory, and is able to represent it internationally.
In international law, states don’t really recognize “governments”—they recognize other states. That includes states whose governments’ they’re vehemently opposed to.
The U.S. recognized Soviet governments throughout the Cold War, to cite just one example. No one sane thinks that means the U.S. accepted Stalin’s democratic legitimacy.
“Recognition” is exactly what its name implies— it recognizes facts on the ground. Namely: that a given government exercises actual control over a given territory, and is able to represent it internationally.
These norms are old. They’ve developed slowly over the four centuries since the Peace of Westphalia. Diplomats, as a norm, are a prudent, plodding, precedent-obsessed bunch. They don’t disregard standard practice willingly.
Over the last 24 hours, though, the Western Hemisphere’s diplomats have gone wild. Canada, the U.S., Colombia, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Perú and a bunch of others have tossed the librito in the garbage and recognized as president someone they know doesn’t control Venezuela’s state.
As Venezuelans who hate Nicolás Maduro’s goddamn guts, it’s all kind of exhilarating. But hot times call for cool heads, and it’s worth stopping to ponder why the norms around recognition developed in the first place.
The reason the librito counsels against recognizing regimes that don’t control the actual territory is that doing so generates conflict points. We saw the first of those yesterday, as the Maduro regime ordered the expulsion of U.S. diplomats in Venezuela and Juan Guaidó declared them un-expelled. This left the U.S. with little choice but to say they were going with Guaidó’s plan. Which led Diosdado Cabello to threaten the embassy’s water and electricity lines. Of course, it’s Diosdado Cabello who has his hands on the switch of the embassy’s utilities, not Juan Guaidó, because it’s Diosdado who controls the actual territory.
In the long run, establishing recognition as a normative (who should run the country) rather than a positive (who does run the country) question is a recipe for conflict. That’s why standard practice counsels against it.
As things stand, the U.S. now recognizes a counterpart that has no power. So does the rest of the region. If the regime collapses in the next few days, the move will be hailed as a diplomatic masterstroke.
But…what if it doesn’t?
“It’s a strategy that only works if it works,” is how Crisis Group’s Phil Gunson put it to me on the phone yesterday. “If it doesn’t, there’s no plan B.”
If Maduro manages to hang on through the coming few weeks, the hemisphere will find itself in the very uncomfortable situation of having no interlocutor in Caracas. If Nicolás Maduro grabs Peruvian diplomatic facilities, who is the Peruvian Foreign minister going to call to protest, Guaidó? If the government expropriates Colombian company assets, what good does it do Duque to call Guaidó to protest? If an American Airlines jet gets impounded in Maiquetía, who does Pompeo bawl out? If Canadian citizens get thrown in jail on plainly made up spying charges, who is Chrystia Freeland supposed to complain about consular access to? Gustavo Tarre?
Recognizing Guaidó is a strategy that only works if it works. If it doesn’t, there’s no plan B.
Which is why I think the Europeans are striking a smarter balance here. One after another, European governments have tried to express maximum support for Juan Guaidó without explicitly recognizing his claim to the presidency. A lot of Venezuelan opposition supporters roll their eyes at this, slam it as weak. It’s not weak. It’s librito-bound.
The risk is that if the Guaidó recognition gambit doesn’t pay off quickly, governments up and down the region are going to be forced into an extremely despiriting climbdown—re-recognizing the Maduro regime simply because they have pressing diplomatic business that can’t be put off. Such a climbdown would entrench chavismo in power for another generation.
The librito, it turns out, is there for a reason.
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Perhaps the reason diplomats and other nations have closed the librito in this regard is that most have played by existing rules and Maduro is still there. It nevertheless seems doubtful that marches and foreign diplomatic moves are enough to roust the Chavistas. Perhaps recognizing Guaidó put into play economic moves otherwise impossible, then end move being to curt off his access to his cash flow, leaving Maduro with no power to pay off the military and sustain this nightmare.
Bingo Juan Largo.
As I said elsewhere, Guaido himself could be called a usurper according to the Constitution but fuck it, it’s time, no, LONG PAST TIME to make a move, to do something to change the status quo.
I’m for it. I’m all for it. I hope Godgiven Hair shuts off the power and gas to the US Embassy. Keep fucking around and he’ll wake up to find a Navy Seal Team hauling his ass to the United States to stand trial on drug smuggling charges.
I suspect that the Embassy has electrical generators and ample water supply to last for a while. Provisions to include class Vi could be re-supplied through diplomatic channels. I doubt the FAN would interfere.
I betcha sooner then later that’s exactly how it plays out and I’m willing to bet their will be piss spraying all over the place. I recommend depends undergarments, worked for gramma!!
Francisco,
Maduro et al do not follow international diplomatic norms. They have been pissed at the U.S since Chavez took power. Maduro blames 110% of all problems in Vzla on the U.S. Wording of the U.S. support for Juan Guaidó is of little matter. Moreover over 85% of Venezuelans agree that Guaidó is president.
Quico, you remind me of what Abraham Lincoln said of his generals during the U S Civil War. He said they “had a case of the slows”.They were always getting ready to do something but could never quite pull the trigger. The Confederacy as a result ladted longer and the loss if life was greater because the north would not energetically press the war. You are such a smart guy and your knowledge of your country and it’s issues is extraordinarily deep. But you do have a case of the slows.
Assume that the US, Canada, Brazil and Argentina did what Europe is doing, which is nothing. In that case Guaido cannot declared himself interim president and there would be no mojo amongst Venezuelans. Someone has to take risks in order to overcome difficult issues. Guaido and the countries that recognized him are taking risks while your European friends have a monumental case of the slows.
I concur with this take, Bill. I deeply respect Quico and am very grateful to him that CC exists.
However the time for action is now. This is a strong move by multiple countries in the hemisphere, one that has real implications for the regime and puts some wind in the sails of the opposition without putting any US boots on the ground.
The librito does exist for good reasons. However whether or not a break from precedent is warranted depends on the particulars of the case. The decision has overwhelming popular support within Venezuela, people are suffering, the illegitimacy of the regime is clear-cut, and other democracies in the hemisphere are supportive, especially those who have struggled to accommodate a massive influx of refugees.
Your Civil War illustration is apt, but sobering. Ultimately the Union won when Lincoln elevated Grant and Sherman, two guys who definitely didn’t have the slows, but ultimately won because they understood what the cost of victory would be and were willing to pay it. Hopefully Venezuela will be able to excise this cancer w/o paying a heavy toll in human life…
Venezuelans, understandably, after so many decades of being beaten in the game, learned to see chavismo/communism as some sort of invincible entity, but the truth is that chavistas/communists are fragile humans like us too, they need food, they need money, they need medicine, they feel cold and heat, they need protection and shelter.
Many in Venezuela still can’t believe it, but Chavez even died at some point. Yes, it’s crazy to believe it, but immortal and invencible Chavez, hijo de Bolivar, is under the ground now.
“No matter what we do, we always lose in the end.”
This is called learned helplessness, actually. However, learned helplessness is not present in the minds of people like Trump and Bolsonaro, and other relevant players. They believe that they are able to depose Maduro, and they clearly are. Those countries wouldn’t enter a game that they couldn’t win. They are no idiots.
The game is different now because the major players moving the pieces changed. Even in Venezuela, Guaidó is clearly not the hesitant Capriles we were used to.
I would totally agree with you, though, had Trump and Bolso not been elected, or even if the usual suspects in MUD were running the show, inevitable defeat would be just a matter of time in this case. As always.
THE GAME CHANGED!
Just wanted to say this is the best comments section I’ve read in a while. Whatever you think of Quico’s opinion/analysis, CC is great, and the commenters (a few exceptions aside) are thoughtful and respectful.
Lol you clearly didn’t scroll down enough to read Ira’s masterpiece. she seriously needs to chill the fuck up.
jeje agreed!
Thanks, and yet they delete our comments so often. Go figure.
Well said my man. Well said.
Quico, you’re out of your fucking mind. You not only have a serious analysis problem, you have other problems which no one can possibly determine.
I have never read such blabbering nonsense anywhere.
Did you actually read it Ira? Do you understand stand the words, and why they are strung together? Do you understand that it is inter country diplomacy that has prevented war, maybe WWIII, and prevented hundreds of millions of deaths? Sure, slow diplomacy has cost millions of deaths. But not on a logarithmic scale. Geez, #45 wants to pull out of everything including conflicts in Syria and Afghanistan, or to staff embassies including S. Korea who we are negotiating with on N Korea disarmament. And then wonder why it isn’t going so well? I’ll give him his due for announcement yesterday, but Quico has a valid point, if only to consider.. it’s not blather. And 45 would serve US better if he realized he isn’t the best negotiator, and maybe leave some of it to the professionals.
You are actually claiming…you said it, not me…that the U.S. and countries going along with them are going too far.
You’re mentally disturbed.
His advices are always to refrain the opposition to Maduro, to ease the pressure on chavismo, to stop whatever is being done, always a call to inaction.
And that’s what MUD has been doing for decades without zero results.
The guy is somewhat the personification of MUD!
*with
Falson whispers sweet nothings into Quicos ears, and tucks him in at night with MUD fairy tails. Perhaps he even tucks some DICOM dollars underneath his pillows.
Quico will go to his grave saying “no vale, yo no creo”.
I get your drift and it is a valid point but in this situation a lot of off the book and improvisation would have to be found, as we go, and hopefully it would be temporary.
Those formalities is a luxury we can not afford now.
If there is anything the Chavistas can take good credit for is in their ability to get shit done, in terms of their agenda by skipping unnecessary formalities, the bureaucracy and all the legal BS.
This is how the opposition lost to Chavez and Maduro all along for 20 years
You can’t play fairly bounded by the rules and expect to win when the enemy is not.
A very “smug liberal” way to of look at things. And sure you can say: “I told you so” if this situation occurs: “Such a climbdown would entrench chavismo in power for another generation.” Nevertheless, this is a rather big assumption given the fact that this regime is on the verge of collapse and we just need the final blow.
Sorry to say, but it looks like the decision has already been made by higher ups and it is time for Maduro and crew to go. It has been a long time in planning yet if this means that this will eventually end in a military intervention SO BE IT!!!!!! LIBERTAD!!! LIBERTAD!!! LIBERTAD!!!!
Sorry to say, but: “Might = Right” so F*^K “Librito.” And this has always been and always will be the guiding force in history. The Chavistas know this, and so does Trump. And finally we are playing hardball, when you want to play softball.
So the only thing that would change this fact is if all of those countries- and especially the USA, Brazil and Colombia- have been playing with Guaido all along and just blowing sunshine up his ass. Then we would end up with the nightmare scenario which it sounds like you almost want to happen.
Secondly, this is not just about the use of force, but also the control of Venezuelan state assets outside of Venezuela. Which is kind of a big deal that you should mention. Or creating a huge show on the border trying to get humanitarian aid in…and this is to say nothing about petrolium sector sanctions, but I will leave this all as side note fore now.
Other countries have not piped in yet, because they are in a “wait and see” mode. Take Great Britain, they want to see first how this will be played out and quite obviously the USA is the lead guinea pig. Nevertheless, the guinea pig is really an elephant and the UK has always followed the US lead in most every major world conflict.
So what this ultimately boils down to is not words, BUT ACTIONS. And furthermore, I would not just say that librito is weak, I would say it is “CUCK”.
So the ultimate question this boils down to then is: who is running the USA in 2019- Jimmy Carter or Donald Trump?
I am sure that all the allies here have discussed this scenario and its consequences over through and through and behind closed doors. And if they are ready to use force, as backed by the USA, then there is no stopping this.
And in conclusions, sometimes in history you have to be “all in” if you want to bring about change against dictatorial regimes. So while the rest of the CCS crew writes about the euphoria of 23E, you just like to rain on everybody’s parade which makes us wonder: whose side are you on??? Something we have been wondering since you threw in your support for Falson.
Right, Guacha, and the next step/mistake isn’t stopping humanitarian aid coming in, it’s the U.S. Embassy–fatal for them if they make the wrong move–so it could be death by one cut, or death by thousands of smaller economic cuts….
And because neighboring states and most all of the Western Hemisphere are in this for the long haul, “the death by a thousands of smaller economic cuts” is a good metaphor. The initial stages will be r
Furthermore, this debunks Quico’s argument of: “Such a climbdown would entrench chavismo in power for another generation.” There will be no climbdown. Maduro is going down and it has already been signed off on. Maduro: “Your fired!”
Guiado would have never did what he did yesterday if he did not have a coup and/or international intervention up his sleeve. They have a plan that they have been working on for more than a year, and now it is time to put the plan into action. Furthermore, embedded into this plan are short term and long term scenarios based on the reaction of the Chavistas (so one cut, or a thousand cuts).
Trump wipes his ass with “Librito” and Venezuela will be free because of this.
Opposition finally got their shit together boys and girls. That’s what we wanted wasn’t it? Leopoldo had a lot of time on his hands.
The librito is also starting to include the concept of R2P after the learnings in Rwanda, and other places.
The International community has the responsibility to help in such cases as ours, where there is a failed state, and the population is at risk/ at harm.
The diplomatic work has been done and Its up to the military (both regular and irregular) foreign and local to take this conversation forward.
God bless Venezuela.
Ira, Quico is not out of his mind as you so colorfully suggest. He has always wanted a negotiated deal and long term sees chavistas participating in a new government. His bottom line, I think, is to avoid bloodshed and that’s hard to disagree with. My sense is that with the chavistas controlling the judiciary, the economy and the military any opposition, in order to be successful, has to take risks. He seems totally risk adverse to me and fears that the opposition may feel too emboldened with the support of what he thinks are “far right” governments to negotiate and thus plunge Venezuela into Civil War. I may be dead wrong but that is my impression after reading his work for now over a year.
He can want anything he wants. Who gives a shit.
This piece is total nonsense, total garbage.
Quico has never been right, but this time, he’s in totally Fantasy World, ignoring the REAL world.
Hey it stimulated some good conversation anyway!!
“fears that the opposition may feel too emboldened with the support of what he thinks are “far right” governments to negotiate and thus plunge Venezuela into Civil War”
This is hilarious!
Bloodshed can easily be prevented by trump and the American coalition by going one step further and threat to send the navy down south. Venezuela has never ever fought a war, we are by nature puro pantalleo. It would only take a serious threat and/or tactical missil to have all the chavistas flipped in a second. Alas, we wouldnt even have had to go through yesterday’s death toll.
“[Toro] has always wanted a negotiated deal…” And you know this just how? I read his same words and conclude that Toro wants international communism no matter the cost to others.
— Davy Jones
The external governments that rejected maduro’s election have the same problem. How do they reject maduro’s legitimacy while recognizing his administration?
The current approach seems a reasonable interim compromise versus complete disengagement. (Reasonable to reasonable people, not to knee-jerk socialist, crypto hard-core marxists, that is.)
— Davy Jones, easy to delete.
Venezuela has become the boil of the hemisphere. It has created a refugee crisis which is just beginning. This is creating such instability that the countries have to act outside ‘el librito’ to avert the impending flood of hungry Venezuelans walking over. Los Sirios se van a quedar pendejos if they don’t stabilize the economy, pero ya! Traditional stayed measure are going to be too slow to avert the flood which in turn may trigger anti immigrant political movements (Ecuador’s sorry weekend redux all over the place?).
If this does not take Maduro out, the Latin American countries are going to have to evaluate between a direct military intervention or just swallowing the mass of paupers coming their way.
What is coming loud and clear is that Maduro will rule Venezuela even if it is a pile of smoldering ashes, which he takes from his mentor Fidel, whom would have nuked the world over the missile crisis of 1962.
“The librito—standard diplomatic practice—is emphatic on this point. “Recognition” in international relations, is not a value judgment. It doesn’t imply approval, in any way. It doesn’t imply you accept the other side’s democratic Legitimacy.”
——/
Well, that explains everything, right?
Don’t think so.
National security adviser John Bolton said Thursday that the White House is focused on “disconnecting” Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro from his sources of revenue
It would seem that controlling Venezuela’s government foreign exchange checkbook, is slightly more important than controlling some often anyhow not working gas and water switches.
Yup, just saw Bolton interview. This was all planned out very carefully and all i’s dotted and all t’s crossed. So no “miscalculations”.
Also, Bolton said there would be grave consequences if Maduro’s malandros touch any ambassador or US citizen.
So maybe Quico is overthinking all of this way too hard through the concept of “librito” –which is nothing more than an academic exercise at this point in time and otherwise just “intellectual masturbation”.
I’ve always called it “mental masturbation” – but yes, exactly.
Cnackler may finally get his wish of the US to stop buying Venny oil. He’ll still find a way to complain about it, though.
A.K.A: Paja mental
“The risk is that if the Guaidó recognition gambit doesn’t pay off quickly, governments up and down the region are going to be forced into an extremely despiriting climbdown—re-recognizing the Maduro regime simply because they have pressing diplomatic business that can’t be put off. Such a climbdown would entrench chavismo in power for another generation.”
Oh please!!! Nonsense. Guidó as interim president has the power to call for US military intervention at any time. That, in fact, might be his next move.
“…forced…pressing diplomatic business…” Yeah, that’s hilarious. As though Vz/chabismo had not completely isolated itself years ago. Hey, at least Bolivia and Nicaragua don’t need no stinkin’ librito, which is nice.
What’s Vz going to do if the US et al don’t “climb down” — stop selling oil?!? Haw! (Every oil producer in the world lies awake fantasizing about that happening.)
— Davy Jones, easy to delete
Guaidó!!!
The chavistas have played outside the librito and it has worked out for them. Why not the opposition try it for once? It seems like you are upset because we are not following protocol. Screw that.
Fortune favors the bold.
Excellently put. I was hoping to see someone here articulate the diplomatic clusterfuck of the situation.
Hope is winning my mind-battle against reason, though.
I have to say, I have to agree. And the “despiriting climbdown” would be mostly dispiriting for us.
I get that people here want leaders to take risks, but Quico is all about realpolitik, and he has to look at the odds, not just wishful thinking.
PLEASE CONSIDER SUICIDE!
O mejor aun, muerdete la lengua!
Articulating the FT/diplomatic clusterfuck/librito: “Peace” means don’t touch our illegitimate Regime; “Dialogue” means give our illegitimate Regime more time to steal; “Colonization”/”Imperialism” means USA, but not Mother Cuba; “Socialism” means Communism; “Pueblo” means the uneducated patas en el suelo we came from, but we surely don’t want to be like now that we’re rich; and “Elections” means the fixed/manipulated/machine results that the CNE/Regime says they are.
Wow, a lot of people here have a problem with a little useful information. Europe’s far away, like China, and Russia. But nothing changes the fact that por la plata baila el mono. Let’s now see about these generators.
Oh if they even glance at the embassy, you let me know and I’ll be down there with my posse before you know it.
I understand that this poses big risks for the other countries for sure, but it also provides the opposition with a much stronger hand going into an eventual negotiation. It also sort of ensures there WILL be some sort of negotiation, as other countries will want to have an excuse to recognize whoever ends up controlling the territory (even if it does end up being Maduro).
That’s 10 minutes of my life I won’t get back. Discussing such “libritos” is a joke, like the fiambre used to say ” the problem is political, not legal”.
Would it have been better not to have “recognition”? Just leave Guaido holding the bag, or colgado de la brocha? Without the US backing, Guaido would be in the Helicoide. Naivete or hidden agenda?
Disgusting.
If you think about it, only Trump’s government could come up with a strategy like this. His administration literally does not care about the rulebook. He also has no compunction, guilt or knowledge for that matter of the history of (many times failed and/or bloody) interventions of the US in Latin America. And thus they act…. For all my disagreements with the rest of their policy, right now it feels like it’s worth a shot. I see all the same paths to failures that you see, Quico, but … what if it works? how far is the US willing to go to make it work? how far is Latin America willing to go? Colombia? Brazil? Chile?
One question is the idea of a “despiriting climbdown” seems to imply that unless the opposition can swiftly gain power, The Chavistas can just carry on ad nauseum. Not seeing that, especially as Trump et al REALLY start crimping Jowl’s cash flow. While they talk a big game, I don’t think they’d be loopy enough to imperil the America Embassy. At all. God Given Hair is all bluff. I don’t even see the military going on any punitive missions now. Maduro is being tolerated, at best, by the Generals. His right to run the country has always depended on his ability to funnel dough to the military and while drugs and gold still flow, it can’t be much compared to oil income, and that, by all reckoning, is going to be gone presently.
But what, I wonder, will happen to the Cubans? If Guaidó was really bold, bordering on reckless, he, as acting president, would order all Cuban “advisors” out of the country. I suspect Leopoldo Lopez is calling many of these shots behind the scenes. Can only wonder what he still has up his sleeve.
Juan,
I stated this recently on another comment section, but IMO Guaidó should absolutely go full Bolsonaro and especially point out that he is referring to the spies in the military. Why not? Cant see any downside.
Don’t forget about the drugs. Big factor there. Bigger then all the rest put together big. You know how much money and time and weaseling and worming hair had to do to get to where they are now? Where they control an entire country and have spilled out across all of it’s many boarders? And control the entire military and police force from the generals down, you just have to whisper hairs name and a quick phone call from hairs wife and you are on your way!! With an escort! But I digress, what I wanted to say was that the real players behind the scenes won’t watch their business go down in flames without wildly flinging a few buckets of gasoline on the fire to make sure no one else gets it.
Viva Venezuela! We are tired of the corruption! Get these guys out of play so we can run this country as it should be run and not as a coke distribution hub.
Sorry I meant jowl’s wife.
“If Nicolás Maduro grabs Peruvian diplomatic facilities, who is the Peruvian Foreign minister going to call to protest, Guaidó?”
If Peru cannot defend its diplomatic facilities, they should abandon them. I may be wrong, but I speculate that Maduro, Cabello et al have been told that there are a couple of cruise missiles with their names on them ready to be delivered to Miraflores (the one in Venezuela – not the one in Peru) in the event any harm comes to the US embassy/diplomatic staff. Maybe it is a bluff, maybe not. But will they take that chance with Trump/Bolton et al? “Do they feel lucky”? And given that US democrats have these newly found war boners for shit holes like Syria, they should rip right through their pants at the chance to bomb the likes of Marduro.
“If the government expropriates Colombian company assets, what good does it do Duque to call Guaidó to protest?”
About as much good as it would do to call Maduro and protest. Nothing. Nada. Columbian companies have to decide if doing business in Venezuela is worth the risk of of having their assets expropriated.
“If an American Airlines jet gets impounded in Maiquetía, who does Pompeo bawl out?”
See above. If American Airlines does not want to risk losing their plane and/or having their crew kidnapped or killed, then they should not fly to Venezuela.
“If Canadian citizens get thrown in jail on plainly made up spying charges, who is Chrystia Freeland supposed to complain about consular access to?”
With all due respect to the Canadian and US citizens that are currently living in Venezuela, including those that regularly and post comments on this blog, they are all voluntarily residing in Venezuela, a very dangerous place these days. One of the many risks of being in Venezuela these days is being tossed in jail on false charges and left to starve, rot and worse. But, they are adults and have their reasons (family) for taking this risk. I doubt they assume the motherland can save them if they are thrown in prison.
By the way, have the US and Canada told the Maduro appointed Venezuela embassy staff to get out to be replaced by Guaido’s choices? Seems like that has to happen, given their positions.
This proves, once again, that Quico thinks that Maduro et al will somehow surrender power via votes or reason. What other proof he needs to see them as they criminals they are is beyond me.
Point taken. But, actually, the fact that there is no plan B makes me more hopeful. The U.S. and the other countries of the region have simply lost their patience with the situation. Venezuela is destabilizing the whole region and bringing down all of LatAm with them. I believe that the international coalition working this one are even prepared to use military intervention if needed.
Yes, even with the recognition of much of the international community, this rare opportunity to depose Maduro and Co. MIGHT fail.
But if those countries followed their “libritos” and did nothing, then it would ABSOLUTELY fail.
On spot! Best opportunity so far to depose the Chavista mafia, worth taking the shot. Now, if it fails some countries will have to bite their hands and swallow their pride, not the US though, they are going full steam with other sanctions and measures. So if it fails, the pressure will escalate.
FYI: If Diosdado cuts the power to the U.S. Embassy, he will have a long time to wait before they are impacted. They have generators, fuel, and water sufficient for a protracted confrontation.
I have family that lives close by and they haven’t received any water in quite a long time! Maybe the embassy is supplied by a different pipeline. It’s very likely the embassy took self-supplying measures like everyone else has.
They have a VERY big tank.
FWIW – The US State Dept. has just ordered the departure of Non-Emergency US Government employees in Venezuela.
“FWIW – The US State Dept. has just ordered the departure of Non-Emergency US Government employees in Venezuela.”
Preparing for seige of sorts I’d imagine. Good. Dig in. We have here.
the rise of ¨Los Pepes¨ Venezuela edition against Cabello and Maduro
https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/pandillas-de-caracas-decretan-toque-de-queda
This happened yesterday around that area
Around what area? Petare (the video) and Valle arriba (where the US embassy is located) are quite distant from each other.
Don’t go all librito on us. While it is true that recognition doesn’t normally involve a judgment about legitimacy, sometimes it does. For example, the US, and many other countries, never recognized the Soviet occupation of the Balkan States. And after the occupation ended, those states appreciatedthe gesture.
To both Lorenzo and Roy immediately above, yes and yes. Well-put, both.
As Pacino says in “Scent of a woman”.. “What a CROCK OF SHIT!!”
“If Maduro manages to hang on through the coming few weeks, the hemisphere will find itself in the very uncomfortable situation of having no interlocutor in Caracas. If Nicolás Maduro grabs Peruvian diplomatic facilities, who is the Peruvian Foreign minister going to call to protest, Guaidó? If the government expropriates Colombian company assets, what good does it do Duque to call Guaidó to protest? If an American Airlines jet gets impounded in Maiquetía, who does Pompeo bawl out? If Canadian citizens get thrown in jail on plainly made up spying charges, who is Chrystia Freeland supposed to complain about consular access to? Gustavo Tarre?”
An eye for an eye.. close all Venezuelan embassies, shut down all Venezuelan foreign business, shut down the gas, stop importing their oil, stop Venezuelan flights, strangle the damn regime worldwide, and if the shit hits the fan, send the freaking Marines and grab the bastards.
“…, who does Pompeo bawl out?”
He is going to talk to Maduro using a different Pacino line: “Say hello to my little friend”.
I was under the impression that Venezuela is gradually losing what little refinery capacity they had. And 1. had to import oil and naptha to dilute their super-heavy crude so that it could be refined by their weak refineries and 2. used powerful US refineries to refine their crude and then got their gas back.
It wouldn’t take much to disrupt that.
I just finished watching Marco Rubio’s (the other one…:) speech in the Senate outlining exactly why U.S. involvement in Venezuela is in the U.S. national interest. He made a compelling argument.
You will, no doubt, hear more about it soon.
Quico,
Did I miss something? Does the Venezuelan Constitution require the President elect to be sworn in by January 10th after the election? Was he? Is not the next in succession, in this situation, Guaidó? If I understood correctly, that is what happened, hence the correct and legal recognition of the government of Guaidó in Venezuela. Now you are absolutely correct in that this is messy. God given control’s water and electricity. Maduro has the military. They will continue to rule, because they have the power. They have become what many have called them for a long time: Mafia. In the many nations recognizing the legitimacy of Guaidó’s presidency it does more than just make Venezuelan’s feel good. It permits retaliatory moves against country’s that do support and trade with Maduro’s regime. Most interesting from Trump’s end is Mexico, I suspect. Make no mistake: Maduro and Godgiven and the many generals are not leaving by their own accord. They have too much money at stake. Slow diplomacy has not worked. Hard diplomacy is not likely to work.
Yep.
Trump does not lose, ……… just sayin’.
Why would not recognizing the Maduro regime prevent Peru, Canada or the US from calling the Maduro regime to complain about something? Don’t governments have contact with non-state actors all the time, such as FARC?
Before the 1970s, most Western countries recognized the government of Taiwan as the only government of an undivided China. This approach didn’t end up helping much to get rid of the communists, but I don’t think it hurt either. What was their plan B in dealing with Mao? I’m not sure what it was, but I’m sure they had one. Of course, eventually the world recognized the communist regime instead, for practical purposes. But Maduro’s Venezuela does not have the same power as the communist regime in mainland China.
In order to bring about change in Venezuela and get rid of Maduro, something non-conventional has to happen. Some chaos has to occur to achieve freedom. I think it is valid to attempt any diplomatic and financial tricks to bring down Maduro. Maybe it won’t achieve anything but maybe it will. I hope the European countries will join in this effort. Diplomats may frown upon such an approach, in the same way that bankers won’t be happy with any complicated sanctions. But diplomats and bankers don’t call the shots for a reason.
Si asaltan embajadas lo que menos preocupará a nadie es que se esté re-reconociendo a alguien. Esta entrada es “splitting hairs”. Lo de Guaidó ha sido un puñetazo sobre la mesa que cambia el panorama y sorprende ver a analistas tan comedidos, cuidadosos y bien informados como Phil Gunson decir que es una estupidez el reconocimiento, que esto “funcionará si funciona”, que miren ustedes la guerra civil española… o a usted preocupándose del librito con tres millones de desplazados, una inflación estratosférica y ninguna perspectiva de cambio a la vista con posibilidades de éxito de no ser por lo que han hecho ahora.