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  1. Pinned Tweet

    NEW: “The Urgency of : The Impending Regime Offensive & the Delicate Balancing Act in ’s Northwest” My latest, in-depth look at , for :

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  2. Interesting. Photo appears to show a convoy of families fleeing violence along a road controlled by the - in Deir ez Zour, . A rare insight into such permitted movements.

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  3. Whatever you think of the Prevent strategy, this lengthy report by 's is well worth a read: - "Inside , the ’s controversial anti-terrorism programme"

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  4. This by & Bernard Haykel is interesting - a reality worth re-iterating, on how AQ sees as "the devil incarnate." - "Messages to : Al-Qaida Attacks & the Monarchy"

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  5. (10) Moreover - in a somewhat ironic admission - the author reveals that he’s been "advising" Lord Richards on since 2011 -- did that advice help Lord Richards' in-depth plan to arm to-the-hilt 100,000 rebels across to overthrow Assad? Selectivity, much?

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  6. (9) Now this section citing [former] UK officials is especially sneaky, as the author handpicks the tiny (*3*) number of such people who’ve expressed at some point, some level of sympathy for , while ignoring the *100s* of former & serving officials who are the opposite.

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  7. (8) “No major defections ever took place” from 's armed forces... Well, apart from the 10,000s (some estimates say 50,000+) of defected officers & conscripts, and the now extraordinarily widespread draft dodging that necessitated reliance on dozens of foreign militias.

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  8. (7) This entire paragraph entirely ignores *the* reason for ’s intervention: a joint assessment with in mid-2015 of ’s possible imminent collapse. Plus, what is left with now? A skeleton of a state, ripped apart & divided, with a crippled economy.

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  9. (5) As I said, it’s no U-turn; it’s a well-established, long-standing position based on skepticism that a free/fair election will occur. (6) Or perhaps more truthfully, for *insecurity,* as per all of the examples the author lists and more. Need I mention - 2003-10?

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  10. (3) Cavusoglu’s comments are *no different* as those made in & the US; based on a free/fair election, which is extremely unlikely anytime soon. (4) That’s (Baath = solution) the author’s opinion, not that of any of the actors he’s mentioned so far ( & ).

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  11. Ok, let’s start at the beginning: (1) The idea that the regime has become “indispensable” to & “the Kurds” (whatever that means) is palpably ridiculous. maybe, not . (2) Regime forces have *not* entered Manbij, they are villages away, to the SW.

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  12. The looks set to begin formal talks with "in days." - "There are attempts to carry out negotiations... the -n government stance was positive... We believe they will start in the coming days," per leader Sipan Hemo.

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  14. Is it normal for to so rapidly grant a "blue tick" to people under international sanctions? He's funded multiple regime militias in . Oh and also - he's accused of ordering the 2013 assassination of a rival in .

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  15. "Sanctioning is the very least the US can do in ," says - following on from House passing the Caesar Act. - "We simply cannot look the other way and allow Assad Russia, and Iran to steamroll over Syria,"

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  16. This is very good by & follows on neatly from my article (above) from Dec 2018: - "No time to go wobbly on - needs ’s recognition. Don’t give it away for free"

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  17. 's Samer Foz - recently sanctioned by the & nicknamed "Assad's new businessman" appears to have joined : He says he'll pursue legal action to remove sanctions.

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  18. This piece is extraordinary & cunningly misleading. - All "senior" officials he cites have been long-time apologists for & invited guests in . - The author makes so many false claims I lost count & he never once acknowledges *any* violent act by the regime.

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  19. Retweeted
    Jan 23

    Fantastic discussion this morning on terrorism trends and dynamics, underscores the importance of ensuring our policy responses reflect evolving realities, and are based on sound research and evidence. Thank you for hosting!

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  20. Retweeted
    Jan 23

    How does global evolve after the setback of ? One of many questions at today's event on what happens after the caliphate. Watch it again here 📺 Thanks to the excellent panel, and and FFI for co-hosting. – at United Nations

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  21. It was a pleasure speaking at the yesterday, about Al-Qaeda "After the Caliphate." Also speaking: , & Nelly Lahoud. Thanks to for hosting & & FFI for organizing. You can re-watch the event here:

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