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  1. Pinned Tweet

    NEW: “The Urgency of : The Impending Regime Offensive & the Delicate Balancing Act in ’s Northwest” My latest, in-depth look at , for :

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  2. . & raise an important point here, about operational complacency. I've been told in the past 12-24months by multiple U.S. officials how "safe," "easy" and "trouble-free" it is to travel around territories. exploited a vulnerability in .

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  3. .: "The irony is that defeating is what President [] said from the beginning was his goal. In 2016, he vowed to 'knock the hell out of .' His recent choices, unfortunately, are already giving — and other American adversaries — new life."

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  4. .: - "If [] doesn't reverse course our partners will stop listening & make decisions that run contrary to our interests. Our adversaries will play for time, knowing the US is on its way out. & other extremists will fill the void opened by our departure."

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  5. .: "Only & hailed ’s decision. Whatever leverage we may have had with these two adversaries in diminished once said we would leave."

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  6. .: - "Two days after ’s call, tweeted, 'We have defeated in Syria.' But that was not true." - "Days later, he claimed that Arabia had 'now agreed to spend the necessary money needed to help rebuild .' But that wasn’t true, either."

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  7. "The president’s decision to leave was made without deliberation, consultation with allies or Congress, assessment of risk, or appreciation of facts." - Bold op-ed by , who resigned from his post as C- chief on Dec 22.

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  8. Notwithstanding the skepticism that should be lent to such a claim, this is - perhaps more importantly - outright, unreserved racism from the President of the United States. How has this become “normal?” In simple terms: what’s wrong with praying, ?

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  9. Retweeted

    : The strategy outlined by Amb. Jim Jeffrey did *not* seek to coerce out of militarily; nor did it seek to overthrow ; or stay in indefinitely. All 3 claims are false. Instead, it sought to use leverage to bring about a [less bad] political deal.

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  10. Superb by , & : - If (1) the US leaves & (2) the deals w. , we'll lose all ability to sustain any CT operation vs. -- a group that retains 100s/1000s of sleepers & still controls territory.

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  11. : Today, thanks to 's premature withdrawal order & the total lack of coordination with allies, the U.S. will have virtually *zero* leverage to influence any aspect of a political settlement. What did we get in exchange for that surrender of leverage? Nothing.

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  12. : And finally, to suggest that withdrawing will simply leave others (i.e. ) to clean up & contain instability ignores the fact that (& others) have *zero* interest in preventing secondary knock-on effects from damaging U.S interests; in or further afield.

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  13. : And the idea that a prompt handover of territory liberated from over to will bring stability is remarkably naive. - Have we suddenly forgotten about root causes? - That argument is profoundly short-termist. - Localized instability rarely stays local for long

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  14. The US policy (if it can be called that) as it stood 6wks ago was a long way from perfect & it sought to tackle a dreadful set of cards dealt post-. However, those grudgingly praising for ordering a withdrawal are disingenuously misrepresenting that policy.

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  15. As per 's new report, it looks like , & are looking at a -like safe zone for NE : - Rural areas controlled in cooperation w. . - The would remain in urban zones. may accept. via

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  16. Retweeted
    Jan 17

    “Trump’s order was reckless and driven far more by domestic political concerns than it was by facts on the ground,” said Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.

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  17. Jan 16

    grew out of a trend born in 1980s that was always in tension with al-Qaeda. Excellent work by 's Non-Resident Fellow : - "The Hardline Stream of Global Jihad: Revisiting the Ideological Origin of "

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  18. Jan 16
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  19. Jan 16

    While infighting has been reported over territory/resources, predatory extortion appears to be just as, if not more important. Acc. to , pro- militias are charging IDPs $50-$100 to return to their homes & $1,000-$2,000 to avoid referral to the security services.

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  20. Jan 16

    Great new piece by for , looking at increasing incidents of infighting between an expanding array of pro- militias over "spoils of war" in Deir ez Zour, .

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