Nate SchenkkanVerified account

or will Turkey need a big bailout next year?

You mean as opposed to a "very big" bailout? :) (Yes, it's possible no bailout will be needed. Was just gaming out based on an assumption I've heard from various intelligent people.)

Well, can’t Turkey just apply any proposed plan without the IMF (using elsewhere - China? - for liquidity instead)? Just like they did with CHP June 2015 election manifesto; took and applied large chunks of it, got credit for themselves and reasonable outcomes.

Yes, in theory - but I don't see China or anyone else providing the kind of money that's been talked about in these scenarios. What's in it for them?

Quite a bit of leverage to start with...? Rather depends what x country’s interests are and how leverage with Turkey links up to their objectives.

Of course, but what does China want with that much leverage in Turkey? It doesn't really have a strategic ask in line with that much investment. And there's no one else with this kind of cash I can think of.

I think there’s plenty of reason: from the economic encircling of EU, to dissident Uighurs, to coordination of FTFs coming out of Syria, to countering (any and/or all) Turkish influence in Central Asia, AfPak and Africa.

To be clear, talking like $50-80 billion.

Usually there's Saudi money, but now it would be weird

You are right. It would be an IMF bailout; would come after the March Turkish elections; and Europe could support given the exposure of Spanish and French banks to the Turkey’s economy

But then the US will have huge leverage due to its votes at the IMF; and what will happen when RTE says no to ending cronyism & opening up the books?

I don't see how Erdogan accepts an IMF bailout. Possible, but the strings... I just can't see it.

Probably "letting the refugees in Europe card" will also be used more often by Erdogan to get money from the EU.

Plus they will make sure they confiscate dollars from public. And capital controls etc