Sam Heller

@AbuJamajem

Senior Analyst, Non-State Armed Groups, . Looking at jihadism, one eye still on Syria. Jamajem means 🏴‍☠️. Contact:

Beirut, Lebanon
crisisgroup.org/who-we-are/peo…
Joined September 2011
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    21 Dec 2018

    New briefing: With a U.S. withdrawal from Syria now imminent, the U.S. needs to create space for the SDF to deal with Damascus and avoid a chaotic free-for-all in Syria's northeast:

    7 replies 38 retweets 48 likes
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  2. Retweeted
    6 hours ago

    Turkish police makes a number of arrests in an operation targeting suspected HTS members in city of Adana amid Idlib clashes

    13 replies 36 retweets 106 likes
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  3. 4 hours ago

    It's like a prisoner's dilemma, where the equilibrium strategy for both sides is to "defect" to telling inconvenient truths about, e.g., Seif al-Adel communicating in real time with Syrian jihadists.

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  4. 4 hours ago

    So regardless of your opinion of – for example – Attoun's personal credibility, you can still assume he's substantially constrained in embellishing or falsifying claims by the number of antagonists and other parties who could very easily and credibly point out any falsehoods.

    1 reply 3 likes
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  5. 4 hours ago

    Another analytical point: These intra-group or -movement arguments tend to be particularly illuminating because participants are strongly incented to be truthful – they know their audience is informed and their antagonists are in a position to credibly rebut any false claims.

    1. So, these are facts: • Three good sources on two mutually antagonistic sides say Nusrah's July '16 rebranding to Jabhat Fath al-Sham and the group's implicit break with al-Qaeda were characterized in internal Nusrah discussions and communic…
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    1 reply 4 retweets 10 likes
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  6. 6 hours ago

    Dumb question, maybe: Shouldn't it be Harakat al-Shabab *al-Mujahid*, not al-Mujahideen?

    2 replies
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  7. 7 hours ago

    Former Syria envoy Michael Ratney examines U.S. stabilization efforts through the particularities of the Syrian conflict, in which – in contrast to other recent and formative stabilization efforts – the U.S. was stabilizing in opposition to the state:

    8 replies 6 retweets 25 likes
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  8. 18 hours ago

    So who’s up for watching “Cats Wear Shoes”?

    1 reply 1 retweet 13 likes
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  9. 21 hours ago

    Realistically, the only two things that will deter Turkey from rolling across its southern border are either a) the United States or b) Russia physically standing in the way. If a’s presence has an expiration date, then what arrangements have to be made to enlist the help of b?

    6 replies 4 retweets 8 likes
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  10. 22 hours ago

    Pompeo says U.S. withdrawal doesn’t “materially affect” execution of mission – but wouldn’t it affect whether U.S. can deter Turkish attack on U.S.’s Syrian partners, or respond (legally, in self-defense) to attempted incursions by the Syrian military and Damascus’s allies?

    Pompeo today, via , on the US pullout from Syria: “The fact that a couple thousand uniformed personnel in Syria will be withdrawing is a tactical change. It doesn’t materially alter our capacity to continue to perform the military actions that we need to perform.”
    3 replies 2 retweets 8 likes
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  11. 23 hours ago

    2. Ahmed: • Commercial traffic coordinated with Salvation Government's Public Customs Administration. Individuals' travel coordinated with General Migration Administration in government's Interior Ministry. • Revenues go to services including roads repair, Shipping Office.

    1 reply 1 like
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  12. 23 hours ago

    1. Salvation Government Minister of Economy Muhammad al-Ahmed (Abu Taha) talks to about administration of Idlib's crossings (): • Categorizes crossings as either mixed commercial-humanitarian (Bab al-Hawa) or purely commercial;

    2 replies 6 likes
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  13. 23 hours ago

    IS's "al-Naba" says it's unsurprising HTS took control of Idlib, after a year-plus of sole control of Idlib's most politically and economically significant cities and infrastructure, in addition to, "most importantly, [HTS's] relationship with the apostate Turkish government."

    2 retweets 4 likes
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  14. 23 hours ago

    Sour-grapes editorial in latest edition of IS's "al-Naba" argues HTS liquidated its factional rivals and erstwhile allies using the same justifications for which people used to reproach ISIS – but no matter, ultimately God will leave nothing of them.

    3 replies 3 retweets 7 likes
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  15. 24 hours ago

    Oops, not the latest, one issue back.

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  16. 24 hours ago

    Latest issue of "al-Naba" compares Trump's announced withdrawal from Syria to Bush's "Mission Accomplished" and Obama's withdrawal from Iraq, attributes their premature declarations of victory to their fixation on worldly life instead of God's promise:

    1 reply 4 retweets 6 likes
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  17. Jan 12

    This + a lot of green tea = maximum productivity

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  18. Retweeted
    Jan 11

    | حول خيارات "هيئة تحرير الشام" بعد سيطرتها على كامل مفاصل الشمال السوري

    3 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
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  19. Jan 12

    Another takeaway from Interior Minister Machnouk's presentation: ISIS's evident ability to direct external operations – including making logistical arrangements abroad – and continued interest in organizing attacks, even when operating mostly underground somewhere like Idlib.

    1. So the PowerPoint that accompanied Lebanese Interior Minister Nohad Machnouk's briefing on the ISF's "Deadly Cheese" operation last month () also illustrates what was happening on the other side of the line: HTS rolling up ISIS inside Idlib.
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    2 retweets 5 likes
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  20. Retweeted
    Jan 12

    The Syrian government, feeling more assertive following recent developments, is requesting foreign diplomats based in (with missions still operating in Damascus) to re-open their embassies in or their visas may not be renewed.

    3 replies 14 retweets 18 likes
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  21. Jan 12

    Russian Foreign Ministry spox Maria Zakharova's remarks on Idlib yesterday: Absent context, though, you might miss how much time she gives to non-Idlib Syria issues. Is now the time to risk prejudicing those files by escalating in Idlib, for Idlib's sake?

    1 retweet 3 likes
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