Kirk H. Sowell

@UticaRisk

Utica Risk Services: Arabic-language services firm, MENA risk analysis | Focus: Iraq, Levant, GCC | Tweets in Arabic largely relate to videos posted.

insideiraqipolitics.com
Joined September 2011

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  1. Pinned Tweet
    28 May 2016

    I am reuniting my separate accounts in English & Arabic. Apologies to non-Arabic-reading followers, but managing two is too much trouble.

    5 replies 3 retweets 24 likes
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  2. 1 hour ago

    I'm just reposting this tweet from August because I think it fits the moment.

    Post-Arab Spring Assadist Syria is going to put the dystopian genre of novel writing out of business. It will be a pure militia state wasteland. You either work for the formal state, which is broke, or some glorified local miltia which has better income sources.
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  3. 1 hour ago

    No, given AAM's express disclaimer that Fayyad's nomination was his idea back on Dec 11, I think letting Fayyad go back to his previous jobs was a way of making it easier for him to back down. But he's not taken that option yet.

    Replying to @UticaRisk @vvanwilgenburg
    Or it’s a message to the parliament from “You have to deal with it, the next MoF is Faleh”
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  4. 1 hour ago

    And yes, I know you're not supposed to judge people based on how they look & what they wear and all, but when I watch this video, "freemen" is not the word that comes to my mind. I think they are the people on the other side of the war from the US.

    0:20
    الجيش الوطني (تجمع أحرار الشرقية )و بمشاركة…
    1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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  5. 1 hour ago

    The way the Syrian war has degenerated into an all-on-all militia war is really something. Instead of Turkey sending armed forces to fight jihadists, the story Erdogan sold to Trump, they'll be sending jihadists to engage in ethnic cleansing of Kurds.

    Ahrar al-Sharqiyah on the Manbij front lines, prepared to “liberate” the city from “separatist gangs.”
    1 reply 9 retweets 12 likes
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  6. 2 hours ago

    For Iraq watchers the relevance of Fayyad taking a letter from Abd al-Mahdi to Assad in Damascus is that Fayyad is back fully active in his position as national security advisor. Yet the fight over his candidacy as InteriorMin remains. via

    2 replies 3 retweets 3 likes
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  7. Dec 28

    The Defense post is fundamentally different from Interior, as Interior is a true power position, while Defense is more a patronage prize for Sunni parties. The Iraqi Defense Minister isn't really a very powerful person. This is why electoral loser Salim al-Jiburi is a candidate.

    2 replies 3 retweets 6 likes
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  8. Dec 28

    Since parliament had a chance to vote for him & rejected him, I'd so no, & frankly he was a personal candidate of Allawi & I don't think he ever really had a chance. Husham al-Darraji & Salim al-Jiburi are the names most circulated.

    Replying to @UticaRisk
    Is Jarba still a candidate for Defence?
    1 reply 2 retweets 4 likes
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  9. Dec 28

    These two portfolios were never very controversial (no one in the political class seems to care how the Education Min is run), but past votes failed because AAM's picks ran foul of the blocs' fights over allocation of posts. The hardest - Interior, Defense & Justice - remain.

    2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
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  10. Dec 28

    Here is some info about them (ar). This happened as we were in final editing on the last issue, so it was comfortably after our cut-off point. The next issue of the newsletter will cover these votes.

    1 reply 1 like
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  11. Dec 28

    Important to note that parliament did, however, approve new Abd al-Mahdi nominees, Shima al-Hiyali at the Education Ministry & Nufal Baha Musa at the Migrants & Displaced Ministry:

    1 reply 1 retweet
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  12. Dec 28

    And this was after Abd al-Mahdi gave Amiri & Fayyad a dignified path of retreat, they won't stand down. In effect Amiri is just pushing AAM around.

    3 retweets 4 likes
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  13. Dec 28

    This was the main story in the last issue of . Will AAM now give another press conference & declare again that Fayyad was not his candidate?

    1 reply 2 retweets 3 likes
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  14. Dec 28

    For those following the saga related to Abd al-Mahdi's cabinet crisis, Amiri's allies are still dug in, still committed to Fayyad, still claiming that Fayyad is the PM's nominee 16 days after AAM himself declaimed this.

    نائب عن البناء يقدم مقترحاً لتحالف الإصلاح بشأن الفياض- هذا تحدي و ليس مقترح, و كتلة الاصلاح لن ستساعد البناء في تحيقيق النصاب لكي يصوتون على الفياض. via
    1 reply 8 retweets 15 likes
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  15. Dec 28

    نائب عن البناء يقدم مقترحاً لتحالف الإصلاح بشأن الفياض- هذا تحدي و ليس مقترح, و كتلة الاصلاح لن ستساعد البناء في تحيقيق النصاب لكي يصوتون على الفياض. via

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  16. Dec 28

    : called on the government on Friday to take control of to protect the area against a threatened ’s invasion.
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  17. Dec 28

    And, in case it is not obvious, Turkey was never going to send military forces way down to the little pocket that IS has in southeastern Syria near Albu Kamal. The replacement for the US presence will be permanent sectarian war.

    1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
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  18. Dec 28

    And thus Russia is the main winner in the Trump pull-out, not Turkey. Russia will be the guarantor of arrangments in northern Syria.

    YPG asks the Syrian government to enter Manbij to prevent a Turkish attack.
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  19. Retweeted
    Dec 28

    Take that Turks will be happy with Assad back in charge of Kurdish controlled areas is slightly off. TR will only accept this if Assad cracks down on the YPG. If not, we’re back to a pre-1998 status quo that Ankara used coercive diplomacy to upend. Moscow now holds the cards

    15 replies 77 retweets 166 likes
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  20. Dec 27

    I also discussed this topic here:

    1 retweet 5 likes
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  21. Dec 27

    The main political economy point was that MPs' constant demands for MORE-MORE-MORE was dangerously unrealistic. One could argue that low oil $ is actually good as a spur to reform, but AAM doesn't have the political capital to push through painful reforms.

    1 reply 3 likes
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