Russian OPs around Manbij and/or Russian guarantees for top cover to Manbij and out the border once the US leaves — and presumably SAA takes control of border crossings — is something to watch for in this uncertain time.
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Take that Turks will be happy with Assad back in charge of Kurdish controlled areas is slightly off. TR will only accept this if Assad cracks down on the YPG. If not, we’re back to a pre-1998 status quo that Ankara used coercive diplomacy to upend. Moscow now holds the cards
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This is why the “hot take” about the US leaving = a net gain for Turkey was so off base. The US and TR, despite claims to the contrary, we’re making progress on the roadmap and this would have yielded talks for east of the river. In short, the US would’ve facilitated a TR return
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This was the Turkish policy and why RTE was so caught off gaurd. The planned small operation east of the river was designed to elicit more American concessions; not a withdrawal. Ankara also has no plans or independent capability to go to the merv.
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Very uncertain times and prediction is folly, but (oddly enough) the available evidence suggests that the only power willing to entertain an open-ended Turkish role in Manbij and east of the river was the US — and Trump pulled the rug out. Turks now have a lot to weigh
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one element that is being kept far from view is that turkey-syria history is basically a history of animosity with few exceptions
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Moscow holds all the cards at this stage
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Probably US existence in Syria was better off for Turkish ambitions ; within Turkish political-military circles, there's been an ingrained Russki fear at all times. Putin allows Turks to attack Kurds, before US leaves Syria permanently. Otherwise, why would he ?
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Not quite. Trump has reversed Obama's policy in Syria (of supporting the YPG/SDF) and is now supporting Turkey. Which means Turkey can now counter Russian influence in Syria with the US if and when required. Northern Syria will be controlled by a US/Turkey led team.
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