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I got hold of a 93-page ISIS document chronicling the life of an ISIS leader AND the jihadi landscape in 1990s-2000s Iraq. Fascinating details show that Zarqawi was not at all the creator of ISIS: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/isis-origins-anbari-zarqawi/577030/ … via
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Consider this, for example: ISIS frequently conducts counteroffensives when there is a sand storm & bad weather, taking new areas in places like Palmyra & Deir Ezzor. They could do that when the US air cover becomes hard, so you can imagine what’ll happen if this is true
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Absolute madness: U.S. to also end air war against Islamic State in Syria: officials | Article [AMP] | Reutershttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-air-idUSKCN1OJ1TG …
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ISIS says it captured and killed a mokhtar (community/town elder) in Hamam al-Alil south of Mosulpic.twitter.com/BdmIMzC39z
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Maybe less dangerous prisoners were released around the time the prisons were closed, but I doubt the US released them because the prisons were closed. So, in that sense, the move led many of those to be killed (counter the narrative) or released *by the Iraqis*.
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One corrective to our conventional wisdom is that the US didn’t in fact let out a lot of prisons. ISIS writings say the prisoners were instead handed over to Iraqis, who killed them, jailed them or got bribes to release them.https://twitter.com/craigawhiteside/status/1075517137920245761 …
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US diplomats shaken by Trump decision to exit Syria http://almon.co/35di very good reporting by
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Trump’s surprise Syria pullout is a giant Christmas gift to our enemies - The Washington Post By
@MaxBoot — (thanks for the shoutout)https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trumps-surprise-syria-pullout-is-a-giant-christmas-gift-to-our-enemies/2018/12/19/c032c7e4-03ae-11e9-b6a9-0aa5c2fcc9e4_story.html …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
The new autocrats are going far & beyond their pre-2011 predecessors. You keep hearing that the fault of the old dictators was that they didn’t go far enough, that the Arab Spring merely slipped through those cracks. The outcome is genuinely frighteninghttps://twitter.com/maitelsadany/status/1075461607864627206?s=21 …
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Counterintuitive is smart; contrarian is easy & often dumb. That’s literally what ISIS wants; that’s what ISIS & other jihadis always wanted; that’s what ISIS says it wants. I’d understand such snark about someone who says that US *intervention* is what ISIS wants. pic.twitter.com/98hLHe3UT5
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Relax folks, pulling out troops won’t be the end of the US “presence”. This is not just about ISIS, it’ll affect Iraq & others. Anybody other than Trump with basic mental abilities understands that rapid+abrupt withdrawal means frozen conflicts will be reignited. It can’t happen:pic.twitter.com/lg76Xf7Bik
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This tweet will appear on the empty page right after the dedication page in future books: “We have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there during the Trump Presidency.” — President Donald Trump, December 19, 2018.https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1075397797929775105 …
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2. But, warns
@hxhassan, ISIS is poised to make a comeback:https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/09/isis-is-poised-to-make-a-comeback-in-syria/569986/ …Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Egypt faced terrible repression during the Nasser, Sadat, and Mubarak eras, but nothing like today’s sustained cruelty. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/12/19/sisi-isnt-mubarak-hes-much-worse/ … from
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Spent all evening discussing all things extremism & my thesis above with the inimitable
@ImaraWaTijara. Turns out he wrote this gem of an essay in 2006. "Zarqawi's Anti-Shi'a Legacy: Original or Borrowed?"https://www.hudson.org/research/9908-zarqawi-s-anti-shi-a-legacy-original-or-borrowed …Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Iran, Russia & Turkey: “The work of the Constitutional Committee should be governed by a sense of compromise & constructive engagement aimed at reaching general agreement of its members which would enable the outcome to receive the widest possible support by the Syrian people”pic.twitter.com/lt730C3sVt
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Good point — and others will be on the way I imagine!https://twitter.com/weddady/status/1075184597607047169 …
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1) “Amaq” uses semi-neutral terms, like “the Syrian regime” rather than “the Nusayris, or SDF rather than the “Kurdish infidels”, unlike other outlets 2) ISIS calls al-Qaeda outside Syraq “apostate” literally everywhere else. https://twitter.com/torerhamming/status/1075031634284548096 …
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"A Decisive Year in
#Syria" - My [brief] 2018 in Review thoughts on what the last 12 months meant for#Syria, for the@MiddleEastInst.pic.twitter.com/TofhrDtVkfShow this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
A very important piece about post-conflict politics in Syria after the regime’s military victory in much of the country: “Syria’s Regime Has Given the Fatah Islamic Institute Influence, but at What Cost?” https://carnegie-mec.org/2018/12/13/syria-s-regime-has-given-fatah-islamic-institute-influence-but-at-what-cost-pub-77949 … via
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For context, ISIS internal report was meant to be alarmist about this current & its dangers. Yet it concluded the internal threat has been contained & is minor, but that it’s important to keep an eye on it. An example of the danger of following complex issues online.
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