Tobias SchneiderVerified account
@tobiaschneider
Research Fellow at @GPPi ∙ Editing @SyriaContext ∙ International Security and Middle East Policy ∙ Retweets are Canon ∙ schneider.tbs@gmail.com
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- Tobias Schneider Retweeted
Sources say DOD informed Gen. Mazloum of the withdrawal, who then asked if US would continue to provide some support to the
#SDF, and in what capacity, or if they planned to sever the relationship entirely. DOD didn’t know how to answer that question.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo - Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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FWIW including Turkish
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Chatting to officials the day after Trump, learning to pronounce "irresponsible" and "disastrous" in so many languages
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There goes the "Rojava - the Eighth Emirate" policy brief...pic.twitter.com/FaAwePkDLu
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And final hot take of the day: Spare me the "handing Syria to Iran" nonsense. As the IRGC was just lusting for Qamishli. The US presence in the Northeast, at least as previously conceived - ie irritating everyone, made the Iran conundrum in Syria *worse* not better.https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/status/1075472142970617857 …
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Nah, Euros went in to keep US engaged, not other way round.https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1075472789799362560 …
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(I have a looming deadline which is why I'm full of hot takes)
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That's not to say this couldn't be done smarter, but then again we didn't exactly arrive at this dead end by way of brilliant long-term policy planning.
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I mean, most likely outcome wasn't [breathe in] "managed transition to SDF-TSO compromise governance negotiating decentralization and US exit" but [again] "sit around alternately irritating and placating PYD and Turks until Assad/Iran decides to plant IEDs to show us the door".
Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo - Tobias Schneider Retweeted
Theory: haircut pricing is correlated not with quality, but with the probability of quality. A $20 haircut isn't half as good as a $40 one, but is half as likely to be good.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo - Tobias Schneider Retweeted
When you step back, it's pretty extraordinary the government is spending billions of pounds on preparing Britain for a policy the cabinet - and the majority of MPs in Westminster - believe would be absolutely disastrous.
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Russia was already the undisputed arbiter of Syria diplomacy. But what if there's nobody left to haggle with?
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I think this is how it's going to be spun, but I don't actually think that it's true. Northeast presence was foundation of Astana. Easier now for Russia to pronounce victory and end political charades - but then what?https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1075392450204721152 …
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As far as policy is concerned, little US can do at that point to protect YPG. Q on whether situation can be managed down to protect Idlib and Geneva, something officials were working on via expanding Manbij trajectory. Trump smashing timeline leaves little wiggle room.
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Meaning Idlib will "settle". Until then, who picks up what cards depends on how process is managed vis-a-vis regime, Turkey etc.
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Opinions on how serious Turkey is about long-term shaping N Syria vary among analysts/diplomat. Ambitious Erdogan might preempt loyalists in some geographies. More likely, resolution of Northeast evaporates centripetal force from Astana and Turkey loses interest in All-of-Syria.
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Quick hot take: If and when decision is actually taken (who knows), things will fall into place rather quickly. Larger part of Arab SDF comp will flip loyalist without batting eye. Turkey fine with this. At that point future of YPG will a function of Damascus-Ankara relationship.https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1075381410691776512 …
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Re-read this here by
@aaronstein1 (who has a fancy new job - congrats!):https://warontherocks.com/2018/04/the-adults-in-the-room-need-to-take-trump-seriously-on-syria/ …Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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